Perhaps this blog will serve as some sort of good luck charm, a contrarian indicator if you will, and send stocks packing and swimming lower without a vest. But it appears to me, a mere expert professional in the arts of investment management, that the market wants to go higher.
We have a softening in oil/gas and a strengthening in tech, biotech, even cryptos. There is a upwards bias thus far in 2023 and you cannot deny it. I cannot deny it.
That being said, we are reminded of previous bull runs and how they all fell face flat into the mud. There is a discernible difference, however, and it lies simply in the new calendar year. Gone is the anxiety of high paid hedge fund managers who got buried in 2022, eager to avoid mistakes. With a clean slate, investors are more apt to apply risk — especially when markets are seemingly bullish.
Even though we are bullish, we in the most royal of terms must remain vigilant and be available to sell short at a drop of a hat.
I’m presently +45bps, down 45bps from session highs with a small SOXS hedge — however willing and eager to increase it at the first sign of danger.
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More lambs to be sacrificed.
It’s incredible, to think the market rises.
However after a 14 year synthetic market, it’s difficult to take those glasses i.e. rose colored off.
So you’re going to fight the Fed, eh? Good luck with that, given that they’re shrinking the money supply. And let’s not forget that a rising market is inflationary, so if the market moves up significantly, the Fed will likely continue to raise rates, at a higher pace than expected.
I continue to hide in short term treasuries, waiting for a decline down to the 3400-3500 level on the S&P before loading up on equities.