I am salty — specifically because I managed a long only book into a loss of 87 bps today via an outrageous loss in a SOXS position gone awry. No need to rehash old news — for I am certain it will ruin my weekend. Let’s just say I had it pegged wrong — because I underestimated the fervor of the PERMANENT BULL class of investor.
It should also be noted, many stocks faded into the close, sans tech — which was strong throughout the session. During bull runs, these types of fades are part and parcel of keeping bears committed to being retarded. I will not look too much into it, since the Dow rose 700 off the back of RUINOUS news that the economy is in contraction.
The theory goes… slower growth means more job losses means Fed pause. The only issue I have with this train of thought is that it’s fucking stupid. The economy slowing does not equate Fed easing — since those cuckholds are waiting for 2% CPI — which should come back ’round by about 2026. It is very likely rates will be above 6% by year end — at which point the economy would be in shambles and only those with cash would be able to sop up assets on the cheap. The timing will of course be tantamount in any venture whilst on the precipice of depression. But that’s neither here or there. What is important now, at this very moment, is what does this week’s action portend for the balance of 2023?
The Dow and SPY rose by 1.5% and the NASDAQ +0.9%. By all accounts, we should now be off to a splendid year.
How did I manage it?
RUEFULLY.
I am down for the year to the tune of 0.76%, mainly due to bad hedges, very sour indeud. Had I not chanced upon SOXS today, I’d be up 2%+. But we cannot and mustn’t cry like babies about spilt milk. If I were to do that, I’d cry myself to death. Let’s think about the future and how grim it might be, with all of those future layoffs and LESS THAN EXPECTED earnings results. And let’s not forget about the earnings and possible wars — and maybe even a Presidential funeral! We have so many great things ahead of us, so chin up if you shed a little this week — for the worm shall turn soon and when it does it will swallow the bulls whole.
Happy January 6th!
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Machine AI, however one considers it, either as high frequency automated transactions, algorithmic capability, augmented intelligence, or true intelligence, is going to make speculation and investment increasingly difficult. Stocklabs is a part of this domain and I would suggest that anyone attempting to invest without such a tool is a fool.
I believe Google leads the domain of general algorithmic intelligence. Amazon is strong in machine-manufacturing process intelligence. Finance and trading houses have advanced operational trading and numerical algorithmic intelligence. Musk started OpenAI, now shared with Google and Microsoft. OpenAI has demonstrated strong language modelling capability (as far as we know); more to do with augmented intelligence that true intelligence. OpenAI’s ChatGPT clearly illustrates that machine reading and language communication skill has been achieved. But the thinking process behind this language capability is still missing. Or so it seems.
So I will make one key observation as to who is likely to win the race to true intelligence. If what Locke suggested proves true, that is we begin this world with a blank slate and that all knowledge from this point forward develops from our perceptions, then any truly intelligent machine would first require sensual perception capability.
There is only one entity that has access to true perceptual capability. Mountains of real time sensory (perceptual) data being collected every hour of every day. That is Tesla. I would speculate that Musk is applying this AI to every entity he touches. Tesla, SpaceX and now Twitter. I am certain that one of his goals is to put a thinking capability behind the language capability – Twitter is the vehicle. Amazon also must have a degree of perceptual data related to their manufacturing and logistics capability. Both companies are on similar trajectories, but Musk is way ahead and is increasing this advantage compared to his competitors.
Some claim true artificial intelligence is impossible but I am not one of those. I believe we are getting very near to it but in a domain-specific way. Tesla will lead the field and Musk is smart enough to adapt and apply this intelligent system to many different fields.
We, as humanity, simply cannot perceive the importance of these developments. We are like the ancient Aztecs; watching an approaching ship of Spanish conquistadors as if it were a giant sea monster filled with shining Gods holding boom boom sticks. It’s happening right in front of us, and we can’t even see it.