DON’T TRUST THE MARKET

The mean reversion algorithms inside Stocklabs are NOT oversold yet. The last set of OS signals eventually led to a fierce rally in stocks, one that I missed by a single day.

We hit OS yesterday on an intra-day basis and then bounced hard off it. But that doesn’t count in our stats.

What we have here is a lethargic, fat, and also slow tape — which in a way is a respite away from the chaotic mashing of heads up and down in the never-ending fuckery that is trading in a bear market.

I am positioned with a slight bullish bias, small positions favoring commodities and a volatility hedge — which I might increase depending on the tone and tenor of the tape. I have eschewed, mostly, individual stocks in favor of ETFs recently, because of the style of this tape, unless of course want to be long something specific like coal or eggs.

I’m +31bps and 72% cash, with a DMV appointment looming at 2:30pm. I will likely be out for the balance of the day, but will have access via mobile phone.