It seems rather nonsensical to be long here after 1500 points of FUCKERY. However, it’s quite rare for stocks to trade lower after such large moves and I suspect if we do trade down tomorrow morning — we will soon rebound and trade up.
Ergo, I am leaning heavily long with a 10% UVIX hedge in the event of nuclear bombings.
The situation in Ukraine is tense, for the Russians. Whatever the hell is happening over there, it seems I’ll never understand it. From an amateur point of view, it appears the Russians are giving up space in exchange for time, which is the essence of war. They are not engaging Ukraine forces and have opted to constantly withdraw and fall back to new defenses, whilst giving up hard fought gains. Pro Russian sources say this is being done in preparation for the reserves that were called up. However, I have a hard time understanding the logic of this and do not understand how Russian forces could be so bad at determining UKR troops movements. It seems, and again this is an amateur point of view, the Russian military command is bogged down by bureaucracy and their formations aren’t enough to withstand the American armed Ukrainians. Pro Ukrainians think they’ll go all the way to Crimea and that’s awfully stupid thinking. Either way, and I am strongly opinionated by this, the Russian setbacks are BEARISH for stocks because it only means Russia will escalate.
Moving on, I am short euros because we are now at parity with dollars and that psychological line might be enough to draw in a downward reversal.
Bottom line: I was +15bps in trading +300bps in my long only quant. I missed this rally and made just 1.15% yesterday. Because I am late, I am of course tempted to compensate for it by chasing. This is retarded level thinking and only works on true breakouts. The time to buy heavily was when people were shitting their pantaloons. We are not shitting anymore and many traders are instead ejaculating. I expect the rally to continue for the duration of this week and then possibly fade, especially if Putin nukes Kiev.If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter