We have hourly seasonality data inside Stocklabs that breaks down returns by the hour. It is clear as day that all morning dips have been getting bought for months, as well as market closes. In the early days of 2022 the opposite was true. We’d crash the open, crash the close and fuck off for the rest of the night watching futures careen lower.
You’d think with today’s bad economic data we’d get some sort of “consolidation”; but it wasn’t meant to be.
QQQ hourly returns since 8/1
Right now the market is slowing down and the momentum from the morning pump slowing. This is where bears get trapped, betting against the tape during the slow hours only to get rotisserie’d at the close.
I entered today with a bad hand of retarded stocks and took losses. It was just the wrong hand for today’s tape. I have since swapped out of them for names working today, but still find myself down more than 2% for the session. I am tempted, of course, to hedge and limit my losses to 2% and prevent a potential rout should markets crash into the close. But I don’t think or feeeeeeel that will happen, seeing certain areas of the market up and breadth relatively stable.
From now until 3pm, I will pray to the Gods to provide me with an afternoon pump, so that, I might, perhaps, expand upon my recent successes — which should be, naturally, all so important to the creatooooor of the universe.
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