18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,158 Blog Posts

I Keep Missing Big Up Days

With the market down 400 yesterday, I made 1.7%. Now with the NASDAQ +300 and all of the crap rising to the top — I am DOWN 1.4%. The sequence of events that continuously leads me to this abhorrent performance has a pattern. It goes something like this.

Market collapses and my counter-correlation trade works.

Bounces are not trusted, so portfolio is constantly hedged thereby limiting gains on big up days.

Desperate to regain some BPS, often times I will attempt gambits via oversized positions or very small caps.

Due to the nefarious nature of these small caps, they are prone to disaster.

Undergo said disaster and then lose confidence in making resolute decisions about the market, thereby further hampering performance.

Repeat this process for months until a tape I am very familiar with appears and allows me to outperform again.

I had been avoiding the small caps up until recently and was entreated to a 45% drubbing in VRAX and now today a 20% whoosh lower in NA. Naturally, in an attempt to make some back, I bought some small cappers in the hopes of catching lightning in a bottle.

I’m presently 45% cash and I doubt I’ll jump in here with the NASDAQ +300 and all of the trash +10%, so I’ll sit here watching all of the kids have fun — kicking the can around in the splashing water — as I wheel my ass back down into the sewers to sleep in the dark.

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  1. davidmarkblack

    Opposite George….


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  2. og

    Stop worrying about the China nonsense.

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  3. donnie wads

    I tuned out of IBC a week or two ago because I just felt you had become too negative…I came back Monday to see if your posts have changed but you have been still wary. Too much talk about war and disease has you missing the counter trend rally. Now we are in no mans land…equal upside/downside risk.

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    • metalleg

      Fly has hired me to be his spox so anything I say here is actually coming from him.

      We here at iBC will continue to be negative and wary and we will be discussing war and disease into the foreseeable future.

      Thus, we highly recommend you tune out again for a much longer period of time.

      Check back in around May 2036 to see if we’ve changed our tune.

      — The Management

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