VERY BOOLISH ACTION

If only judging by price action, this is all very good stuff. Today the stocks most down, like CVNA and PTON, were up the most. The breadth was broad and you made money in almost any sector of the market. The underlying emphasis on this entire rally is and always has been: the economy isn’t as bad as originally expected. Ergo, stocks already down more than 70% are buys.

THIS MIGHT BE TRUE and my bearish prognostications might in turn end up falling flat faced. Let’s remember I was the one calling for the sky to fall at the depths of the COVID lows. I tell you this, not to injure myself, but to instead highlight the fact that predictions are useless and all that matters is trading results.

It’s worth noting, I ended +300% in 2020 and another +220% in 2021.

I ended the session +67bps, 37% cash, and 15% long inverse ETFs. I am not attempting to maximize returns here and this might annoy some of the Stocklabs members who mirror me. Quite frankly, fuck off. My hesitance to press the envelope and go for broke stems in the fact that this entire rally is artifice. There is nothing cogent about it and there isn’t a chance it lasts through August, let alone the balance of July.

What we have here is a classic bear market rally, a bounce. We will RETEST the lows and make lower lows by Autumn, just in time for the Jack O Lanterns and browning of the leaves.