All of the selling in commodities will soon come to an end once people realize the winter is coming and with it colder climes and Russian gas/oil/grain will be in short supply.
There was a report out today that Spain has purchased 4x the gas is normally does since June from Russia, which is most likely then being sold to Germany and other belligerents in the war. We are in this phase of pause now, whereby markets are drifting higher due to lack of bad news. I suspect this leniency will run out cold by late August, so if the market is going to mount a run — it better do it now.
I cannot place myself to be long tech/retail stocks in this environment and I also cannot just sit around shorting stocks whilst the indices are firming — so I am longing commodities and talking my book extra greasy.
One of my top picks is MOS — based off the idea that ESG climate action is a scam and eventually, like it did in Sri Lanka, will fail. Other no brainer ideas include CRK, SD, BTU — etc. I am talking my book.
All of this will be hedged with TZA long.
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One should always talk their book. Otherwise, they are being deceptive.
Not sure how much excess liquidity has been withdrawn and cancelled to date. But likely a lot of money is waiting for the next action. The commodity froth was enabled whilst supported by splendid narrative the likes of which don’t happen often. Until we get shitty the money will keep popping up in my opinion.