I can all but guarantee you that this market breakdown will result in RETESTING the 2022 lows.
That much to me is certain. The pain and agony will happen all at once, as commodity winners quickly turn into loser with hedge funds liquidating to save their skins. There is going to be a race for the exits — but the exits are a funnel and only a few can leave at once — spilled out into a war torn hell-scape of apocalyptic qualities.
On a longer term basis, I very much would like to tell you that “it’s over” and “OMG WE ARE SOO DONE” in my best Long Island accent impersonation. However, it’s too early to make long term predictions. Plus anyway, I am always wrong on them.
I remained in 78% cash the whole day, and although tempted to trade — I knew it was best to stay away. Early on the old man PG, CL, Ks of the world popped — but they lost luster around noon and faded. Everything faded, even the airlines, which were very strong all day. Literally, there wasn’t any place to hide.
I close the session -1.2%, long only $UVXY and $SQQQ — prepared to buy some dips (for trades) at the open tomorrow.
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Today made me into an even greater vagabond. A catamount almost.