RINSE, REPEAT: COMMODITIES DOWN, TECH UP

We’ve been traveling down this identical path all year. Commodities tank after an extended surge or some news of government rigging and that leads to a ferocious tech rally that always fails after a few days and then we’re back to chasing oils again.

How does one trade this tape and not lose one’s mind?

Perhaps having some semblance of diversification could help but to be honest this question I pose to you is also to myself because even though I’m up 30% YTD — I feel as if I’m losing my mind trading this shit. It is THE SAME as 2008 but I was a lot younger then, making far more money, and had a much more sanguine aspirational view on life. Things for me are much different at 45 with the kids all grown up and dealing with the substantive results of all of the crops I planted many years ago.

In short, you cannot be emotional about your ideas, nor can you believe you can only be right and everyone else wrong. If you shortened your holding period and went after current trends you could day and swing trade well enough to do as good as me. I admit to having a certain sixth sense, if that what you want to call it, about stocks and ideas about what will move next, especially themes. I’m really good hypo-fixating on stuff. But anyone can trade and make money doing it. Just trade small and move fast and accumulate a series of wins instead of a few big ones, and next thing you know YOU TOO can host a sparsely read blog discussing the virtues of risk aversion.