It’s all so tiring. Here are today’s headlines and then I’ll offer my 2 cents, as if it mattered.
Pentagon: 40 Russian battalions are on standby in Belarus
POLAND’S READINESS TO HOST U.S NUCLEAR WEAPONS WOULD BE SERIOUS THREAT TO RUSSIA – KREMLIN
Kremlin: We do not rule out the possibility of severing diplomatic relations with the West if it continues to expel our diplomats
YELLEN: CONCERNED ABOUT CHINESE LENDING AROUND THE WORLD
RUBLE +4% VS DOLLAR
YELLEN SAYS U.S. OPEN TO ALL TOOLS IF CHINA INVADED TAIWAN
HUNGARY PM ORBAN SAYS HUNGARY HAS NO PROBLEM WITH PAYING FOR GAS IN ROUBLES
GERMANY’S CHANCELLOR SCHOLZ: I BELIEVE THAT THE PERIOD OF GLOBALISATION WHEN EVERYTHING WAS VERY CHEAP IS COMING TO AN END.
RUSSIAN DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS WE DON’T HAVE ANY CONTACTS WITH NATO, THERE IS NOTHING TO TALK ABOUT AT THE MOMENT – TASS
RUSSIAN DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS HE HOPES THE WEST HAS ENOUGH COMMON SENSE NOT TO PLAY GAMES AROUND RUSSIA’S KALININGRAD EXCLAVE – TASS
RUSSIAN DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS SUCH GAMES WOULD BE ‘PLAYING WITH FIRE’ – RIA
RUSSIAN DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS EUROPEAN UNION WILL PAY FOR ITS ‘ENERGY BLACKMAIL’ – TASS
We are more likely to retest the recent lows than springboard higher based off some enthusiasm that the world is going back to the way it was pre-COVID. It’s over and that world you once enjoyed is nothing but a memory. As tensions rise and China gets reeled into Moloch’s funhouse — real crisis will start to affect everyone.
Here we are down 2.5% for the session, with the Ruble back to pre-war levels, and all our officials seem to say is “NOW DONT YOU EVEN THINK ABOUT ATTACKING TAIWAIN CHINA. DONT YOU EVEN DREAM ABOUT IT.”
Either we are being led by incredibly evil people or stupid, no room for in between given what their policies have produced.
How does one invest in a scenario like this? Well, I wouldn’t invest for the long term in anything, which is why I prefer to trade. Are you confident in real estate up at these lunatic levels — people bidding 30% over ask as rates skyrocket above 5%? Where is all of this magic money coming from?
Are you comfy buying and holding SAAS stocks based off some 2019 model that suggested they could grow automatically at 45% per annum, providing they burned enough cash? Is that a sustainable model in this world, possibly on the verge of global war?
No.
Oil is getting hit today — because FUCK YOU that’s why. The only area of strength I see is in Ag, potash names like MOS, IPI and a few others. I will of course take some gambits towards the end of the session in the hopes they’ll pan out for me in the morning. I sold everything I owned in my trading at the open, which consisted mostly of short positions, and I am +1.1% for the day.
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I leave this here. Good read.
https://ria.ru/20220403/ukraina-1781469605.html
“Either we are being led by incredibly evil people or stupid, no room for in between given what their policies have produced.”
Both incredibly evil and stupid. That’s what rises to the top in a sham democracy.