You will begin to hear of rumors of peace in the coming days — but DO NOT BE FOOLED, war will be continuous for the coming months and years.
On the issue of the yield curve — it’s totally trash now. The US 2yr now is inverted vs the 10 and 30yr, inverted as much as 13bps earlier this evening and now around 8bps. In short, it’s predicting doom for the general economy is about 9 months. Typically speaking, this is disastrous for banks.
NONETHELESS, expect stocks to trade HIGHER soon because we’re in a pocket of strength predicated on any news that can be viewed as bullish. We are most spoiled in the west and we enjoy good cuts of beef, the very best vegetables, and lots and lots of upward surging stocks.
You will expect stocks to trade lower because MUH war. But the wall of worry is being climbed and crazy people are at the wheel so enjoy the ride while it lasts.
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Yet the 10 year and 3 month spread has increased in recent months unlike 2006 and 2019 when both the 10Y-2Y and 10Y-3M spreads inverted.