SIRS —
DO NOT BE FOOLED BY THE LATEST OLIVE BRANCHES OF PEACE.
MEDINSKY: PUTIN-ZELENSKIY MEETING IS POSSIBLE: TASS
RUSSIA’S MEDINSKY SAYS UKRAINE TALKS WERE `CONSTRUCTIVE’: TASS
RUSSIAN TOP NEGOTIATOR MEDINSKY SAYS WILL LOOK AT UKRAINIAN PROPOSALS AND REPORT ON THEM TO PUTIN
UKRAINE NEGOTIATOR SAYS IF SECURITY GUARANTEE SYSTEM WORKS OUT THEN UKRAINE WILL AGREE TO NEUTRAL STATUS UKRAINE NEGOTIATOR SAYS NEUTRAL STATUS WOULD INCLUDE NOT HAVING FOREIGN MILITARY BASES
UKRAINE NEGOTIATOR SAYS UKRAINE PROPOSES HOLDING CONSULTATIONS WITH RUSSIA ON STATUS OF CRIMEA OVER NEXT 15 YEARS
RUSSIA IS BEGINNING TO WITHDRAW SOME FORCES FROM AROUND THE UKRAINIAN CAPITAL KYIV, IN WHAT THE US ASSESSES IS A MAJOR STRATEGY SHIFT
TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS UKRAINE – RUSSIA TALKS IN ISTANBUL WILL NOT CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
Let’s analyze this and make sense of it.
Ukraine is offering a deal to Russia and as a sign of good faith — Russia has begun to pull back from around Kiev. This deal will now go to Putin and a meeting between him and Zelensky might occur. As a result of this offer of peace, NASDAQ futs are +163, WTI -5.2%, and the Ruble is soaring against the dollar +6.6% to $83.88 — nearing the level it was before the invasion.
My analysis:
Even if there is a ceasefire — western powers will not remove Russian sanctions. Ergo, the idea of oil, wheat, fertilizer dropping in price long term is ludicrous. Nevertheless, markets run on sugar rushes and this is a good enough story to celebrate. The market will aways shoot first and ask questions later, so the fading of the way trade is a logical one because that is what is happening right now. Whether or not that holds is another question. Perhaps Putin really only wanted to interfere with Ukraine and had no desires to extend into other areas of Europe. Or, perhaps he did and the stiff Ukrainian resistance and loss of life/equipment made him change his mind.
Another side note: the Euro is +1.25% vs the dollar and wheat is -7.3%.
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It’s certainly possible that Ukraine’s successes have been real, although I pretty consistently got the impression twitter was a shamble of pro-Ukrainian propaganda.
But from the start – after seeing pictures come in from around Kiev and Kharkov – I had the strong impression that the northern and eastern fronts were mostly fake, staffed with conscripts playing the role of fodder troops. I don’t doubt that Ukraine has hit their supply lines pretty effectively, but meanwhile the south has fallen. City people are very focused on cities; the Ukrainian flag waving twitter impulse that this war hinges on Kiev is the American equivalent of seeing New York, New York bumper stickers in rural Pennsylvania.
So maybe peace happens? Zelensky would have to be a realist during negotiations (or I am completely wrong and Russia really is getting beaten back).
But assuming Russia is doing fine, then the next major push should be northwards from the South, to Dnipro and up along the river. If Russia wants to do that they probably need to resupply and get back in formation so a week of peace talks should do wonders. The tell would be how harsh Russian demands are for Ukrainian territorial loss.
All I know is that we, today through Blinken’s public scolding, are doing exactly what one would do to make it politically very difficult for Putin to negotiate a face-saving compromise.
The US wants the war to continue so it makes sense. They provoked Putin to begin with and need this war as cover for everything else they have up their sleeves. Zelensky and Putin won’t make any agreement because Zelensky has been told not to.
Speculation as always
Putin never had designs on more land. He’s been in power 22 yrs
He just wants to end the Ukraine problem. Nothing has changed. He wants Crimea, no language restrictions, no Ukraine / foreign military threat, Donbas independent.
Russians taking losses, yes; losing no
WH does not want peace
All I know is that we, today through xxxxxx public scolding, are doing exactly what one would do to make it politically very difficult for Putin to negotiate a face-saving compromise
I’ll take the opposite of that bet with the midterms coming up:
We’ll get the really bad sanctions soon, freaking out commences…
Since then there are negotiable points to offer, some sort of intangible peace happens…
Some sanctions get lifted…
People talk nice about opening oil, wheat and potash supplies, tanking the price…
All in a nice, tidy and craven bow just in time for midterm circle jerks to happen.
A reasonable speculation. But the folks behind the curtain may have already written off mid-terms (I would were I them) and are cutting deals with Republicans.
Fly, is it you, Word Press, or the deep state that puts comments on “awaiting moderation”?
I hope those are Laguiole steak knives on the second place prizes mugs.
My best guess is Xi is behind this – Telling Putin to calm down for now. I find it hard to believe Putin would stop here, tuck tail back to Moscow with sanctions slapped so far up his vodka swilling ass all int he name of “peace”. There’s no sense to this whatsoever, something or someone is behind this IF we are to believe “peace” comes of this.