DOLLAR IN FREE FALL VS RUBLE: WHAT ARE THE POLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS?

I had a black swan event in mind for the dollar before this conflict started. It went something like this.

Post Afghan defeat, the US suffered a major blow vs Russia — a military defeat in the Ukraine. The subsequent result was removal of the dollar currency reserve after China sided with Russia.

Back then this was a far fetched idea. But let’s game theory this for a moment.

Although the Ukrainians are fighting with spirit, they cannot win vs Russia, unless Russia themselves decides to stop. The west is throwing the kitchen sink at this conflict, to preserve the hegemony.

China has clearly sided with Russia, and perhaps India and Brazil — BRIC IS BACK.

OPEC said they will not remove Russia from OPEC +

The sanctions are an inconvenience for Russia — but they won’t destroy the country since Russia has its own natural resources.

Don’t look now — but the Ruble is soaring against the dollar.

If by summer Russia succeeds in Ukraine, humiliating the west’s efforts to defeat them and then imposing itself on the borders of Poland and the Baltics — we might be looking at an entirely different world order by then — one that almost demands US military actions vs Russia. It might seem far fetched now — but the dollar and our capital markets must be protected at all costs. The fact the Ruble is now up 7.1% vs the dollar on a day when oil is down 6.4% is a pie in the face for Biden and believe me our leaders are far too spiteful to let this go unchecked.

The line in the sand will be if the Ruble can advance into the $70s vs the dollar, effectively wiping out all losses in the Russian currency since sanctions were imposed.

In other news:

SCHOLZ: CUT OF FROM RUSSIAN COAL, OIL MAY HAPPEN THIS YEAR

Russian Oligarch Roman Abramovich, Ukrainian Peace Negotiators Suffer Symptoms of Suspected Poisoning — WSJ