We have a peace in Ukraine trade happening without any discernible peace. Nevertheless, markets look like they want higher, with exception to tech, which is affected by the Shenzhen COVID lockdowns. The price of WTI is -5%, Copper -2.2% and the US 10yr is soaring to 2.08%, up more than 6bps.
Over in Europe the German DAX is up more than 2%.
The assumption seems to be at some point Zelensky will acquiesce to Russian demands. And if so, I am sure markets will rise. But what if some of the doomsayers are right about Putin’s long term goals? What if his next step is to target other countries? The immediate hope trade is a peace deal. We attempt to price this in at least twice per week and almost always give up the gains after realizing there will be no peace deal and Russia is only increasing the ferocity of their assault.
I suspect this will fade too; however, I am uncertain if commodities will recover today, as their holes are fairly deep and the trade is crowded with hot money.
NASDAQ futs turned down 25 — profound weakness found in China tech stocks which all look like zeroes.
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