There is plenty of blame to go around for how we got to this place in the world, starting with the west’s decision to become wholly dependent upon Russian oil and gas, whilst at the same time ceasing to invest in hydro-carbons. The ESG virtue signaling bullshit has resulted in a fuckload of windmills and solar panels, and now a freezing Europe due to lack of fuel for their furnaces and a belligerent Russia using military force to reassert their dominance in a region of the world ancient to them, rich with historical and cultural ties, and yet I wonder what the fuck was going on with America embedded in that country appointing their politicians and arming them with Raytheon’s very best?
The utopian dream of America on Russia’s border, controlling Kiev, is ostensibly over. As much as we supported Ukraine and everyone appeared to be their friends, in the end, a country can only depend on itself to defend its borders. This is between Russia and Ukraine and there’s not much we can do short of military intervention. Those are just the cold hard facts. Does China use this to invade Taiwan? I don’t think so, since China doesn’t produce its own food. Nevertheless, markets are likely to remain on edge for some time, at least until this is somewhat stabilized — and then what? Business as usual with Russia? How can Europe heat their homes without Russian gas? What about Russian wheat and now Ukrainian wheat — the bread basket of Europe?
Once again, the people, the ordinary people, lose out to poor leadership and corruption. The leaders inside Ukraine chose to ignore the signs for months, publicly decrying US intelligence as being wrong about a Russian invasion. For years they poked at Russia while attempting to join NATO — acquired advanced weaponry and smugly demeaned their far superior neighbor because hubris.
In the end, always, the strong eats the weak, no matter how many interviews they do on 60 Minutes.
Now what?
Rock meets hard place. People are happy over the idea that the Fed might not hike due to this war. Really? Oil is fucking surging, alongside corn, wheat, natty, and every other commodity traded. Inflation just got much much worse and if the Fed doesn’t act to counter inflation, we could have a much larger problem with inflation that anyone could’ve ever imagined possible.
I had prepared for this eventuality and own lots of UVXY and TZA, along with an array of commodity stocks. I will likely go to cash today and perhaps get real small and pick and choose my spots. I do not think this is a day to bottom fish, ahead of Friday, ahead of the longest weekend in decades.
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My short is working out UVXY.
Although not in favor, I fully expected this from Russia.
At this time, China will become a deep concern.
The Fed needs to “step the fuck aside” raise rates, and stop the bond buying to prevent anarchy.
This madman episode is uniting “The West” (or at least Europe) more than what happened on 9/11/2001.
Putin hasn’t mapped out his 3D chess moves. Or maybe he really doesn’t care about all the potential consequences.
What consequences?
Woke cubs that don’t know their places will now be eaten, and annexed into 21st century to be built Soviet Union.
Bravo good professor
Brilliant prose