This is most inopportune and most inconvenient and it will take a period of adjustment to trust to never trust the market and to sell it always and to also be mindful of oversold rallies, which can be vigorous and energetic to the upside almost as severe, if not more, to the downside. To sit here now with NASDAQ futures down 205 and predict lower prices would be juvenile. After all, most of you have been spoiled rotten the past 12 years in a bull market. But now the party is really over — since the Fed is over a barrel — ass exposed to the markets anatomy.
They can’t back down from hiking with CPI approaching double digits. They cannot print more and also taper and hike — that is stupid. They can and will do nothing, until both rates and crude COLLAPSE. The problem with crude collapsing is war between Russia and Ukraine. Tomorrow Sec Blinken meets in Geneva with Russia, at which point Russia will make demands the US will not accept and the cast will be died and war will happen within a week.
Netflix announced weaker than expected results, just following yet another hike in their monthly subscription. For those unfamiliar, about a decade ago Netflix nearly bankrupted themselves after their first rate hike and it took Carl Icahn to instill shareholder confidence which led to a PIPE offering which eventually bailed them out. Since then, Netflix has gone straight up and with their newly founded riches have went on to make the shittiest fucking shows and movies ever created — truly establishing themselves as blue haired freaks who care more about their cocks than their content.
Following the news at Peloton, who said they’re delaying production of their fucking bikes, this is leading up to and dancing around and into the idea (bear with me) that a recession might occur whilst in the midst of RAPID NECK BREAKING inflation aka stagflation. You can see it in the housing related names like MTTR, TREX, FND, TOL and many others. Even fucking burrito stocks (CMG) get hammered daily.
Either one of two things is happening now.
1. We are pricing in a recession and there is no floor because we have no idea how deep it goes.
2. This correction is nothing more than that, highlighted by some harsh pullbacks in the highest valuation stocks traded — a well deserved albeit delayed response to exuberance gone mad.
Either thing does not help you trade tomorrow or into next week. Do not confuse the macro with micro. The next trade, obviously, is way up — immediately following getting blown the fuck out.
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Peculiar the VIX is still hanging at 25. I feel like we’ve had shallower selloffs move it north of 30 frequently in the past.
…”blue haired freaks who care more about their cocks than their content”…
Fukin A C’pn – arrrrr!
Beats me what they’ll do. However, your comments on the FED and such assume that they don’t WANT to destroy our beautiful civilization – probably true – – but I no longer assume that it is true.
UVXY for the win!
So now we are in a correction.
The game now is to figure out what kind of correction we are in.
10 year yields are down a lot this morning but that alone doesn’t tell me we’re on the “least bad” deflationary path. There are too many entrenched rules of thumb about treasuries being where you hide in a bear market. Quite a lot of this move could just be equity bulls running for cover.
We also need to see what commodities do. They were selling off hard last but seem to have bottomed for now. Rising again off the lows.
Basic run down of the game:
(Yields up, commodities up) – “STAGFLATION!”
(Yields up, commodities down) – “oof fuck this game isn’t fun anymore, what to do what to do…”
(Yields down, commodities up) – “yields are lying, probably STAGFLATION BABY!”
(Yields down, commodities down) – “DEFLATIONARY VORTEX, FED SAVES THE DAY!”
Actually if yields are up and commodities are down, FED SAVES THE DAY!
Today is the day that FAANG became FAAG