This whole vaccine bullshit era has actually sown some pretty horrendous seeds in the biotech space, whereby everything but PFE is shattered into fucking pieces. The sector is behaving as if the entire human population is about to go extinct.
LOOK AT THE CHART ON THE 3X LEVERAGED BIOTECH ETF
We are in the midst of a torture, with exception to those heavily long commodities. The bare shelves in the grocery store and the tankage of US dominance and its currency has resulted in some fairly outsized gains in the oil/ag sectors. All tech and biotech have been harried into the ovens to be cooked by goblins and eaten at the open of trading every single day since March 2021.
I performed a great tragedy upon myself today, closing of course near the lows -180bps. I am simply not motivated enough and good enough to call myself a competent trader at this time. I ended up with sheer dicerolls of 3x upside ETFs and no hedges. It’s either going very well for me tomorrow or disaster. I have no reason at all to be so heavily long, other than relying on the fact that stocks had been down. That is not a reason to own stocks and I’ll need a miracle, or brief period of ebullition, to help me during the opening tick tomorrow.
Truth is, I was positioned perfectly last night, 20% long TZA and some stocks that did ok during the session. My proclivity to sell in the morning often works but when it doesn’t it gets really bad — because I usually chase in an effort to go green. My obstinance of not wanting to liquidate an account while red is what’s causing these gyrations and the idea of a rally is stuck in my head and I can’t shake it loose.
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Can’t remember the last time I’ve seen you trade so poorly.
Worst start to NY ever for me, -3.2%
Yeah you usually run like a champ in the first couple months, give a bit back, then down shift into steady work until the holidays.
still an oil man
2021 + 382%
2022 +86%
oil for hundy roll
WOLFING AROUND
bullshit
Remember how to enjoy yourself while losing money, then naturally you will stop losing.
Not the worst advice.
The market is a flip of the coin at any instant. Sometimes it flips tails ten times in a row. That’s how winning and losing streaks are formed. It’s the size of the bets during these streaks that matters. Revenge bettors get destroyed.
Bonds skipped after the PPI release which is presumably because PPI numbers beat expectations by a bit and people are taking this as an excuse to believe inflation is topping out.
The actual details of the PPI were far less rosy. Firstly, services PPI – which has been up to now fairly stable – has aggressively turned higher. This is the second shoe to drop on the economy. And secondly, the main cause of the lower performance was energy costs, particularly gasoline. In the past two weeks oil has surged north of $80 again; natural gas was up 14% yesterday alone.
My best guess is bond shorts take this as an opportunity to cover, sending bonds higher until yields touch the 1.67 – 1.68 area (old highs from last year). At which point bonds sell off again.
March rate hikes and the overall bear market thesis are very much on the table.