I have done the research and I have the documents. The QQQ’s are down 4% for the week. Expect another 2-3% down and then a rally born in hell will rise up and smite short sellers. CRM is off more than 10% for January, an oddity of sorts. MAX DOWNSIDE for CRM, if I was betting, will be -15%. If we get there, which we should if the NASDAQ drops another 2-3%, go in.
I suppose we’re heading into a bear market and I suppose no one understood stagflation was the prime threat. But here we are with stocks telling us growth is slowing and at the same time rates are increasing. The misdirection is largely in oils and banks — oils strong due to inflation and banks up due to widening spreads thanks to higher rates.
Everything else went to shit.
With losses mounting in areas traditional to retail, one has to wonder what future a stock like HOOD has, given their customer base is now bankrupted
I am 100% cash, up 10bps for the session and I, once again, squandered an opportunity, as I entered the session net short. I covered my shorts and my longs because I just didn’t want to partake in the chicanery. However, we fast approach a mean reversion level in Stocklabs which will be a call to action for me. The next big move is NOT on the downside, but on the upside. Having said that, I would not be so confident at 11am and I would not trust being too long into Monday, since all of the finest market crashes have occurred on Mondays. Perhaps buy a little into the bell and nibble some more after the market opens down 25% on Monday.
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We go even lower. Why put credence in the direction of a company that makes artificial salespeople?
UST 10y just touched 1.8%. If you are a person who superimposes crown gifs on your twitter headshot and loves bonds this has been a very very bad week for you.
So I think there are three major obstacles to the “CPI will top in 1Q 2022” line that’s been getting thrown around in smokey back rooms and sausage making.
1) Employee wage growth has been consistent and maybe accelerating a little going into the end of the year. That’s all nice and fine for blue collar types and turnover. But white collar Office Space employees get their raises and bonus showers in February. Another major bought of funds are going to hit the economy soon as every company I know is in a deathmatch for labor right now.
2) ISM just published interviews by industry and all but one of them immediately mentioned supply chain problems persisting or getting worse. The one that didn’t immediately mention this was healthcare, which first mentioned that they are fucking exhausted from covid and THEN mentioned supply chain problems have restricted access to basic medical supplies second. Supplier margins are gone and cost increases are coming this quarter.
3) We are still run by morons and every time they shut down whatever godforsaken part of the economy they have seized power over, just mentally add 6 more months onto this hellscape.
bout* not bought
Soon…very soon…the European Debt Crisis will be back.
(Laughs) by continuously refusing to allow any single amount of pain from any down cycle – no matter how small – the central bankers have managed to line up all of the recessionary things of the past 50 years into one spectacular monstrocity; a supercycle of legendary proportions.
We have all the supply chain and inflationary pressures of the 70s and early 80s, all the leverage of the savings and loan crisis, all the valuations of the Dot Com bubble, all the credit instruments of the 00s and all the sovereign debt of the early 10s.
Hell the third world is even now grappling eith the currency problems of the early 90s. The gang’s all here.
CRM $210 support level looks solid and coincides with 50% fib retrace from Mar pandemic collapse, alert set.