I gave up trying to believe and shorted into the fucking hole and recovered HALF my losses, closing down just 0.6%. I feel this is ok and I would feeeeel better if I was up. But look at my quant -4%, and the market in ashes, it’s good to know Le Fly is still immune to market pullbacks and no matter how deleterious a tape gets — I am almost always able to navigate it.
My trick is simply never believing what my thoughts are and instead staying disciplined with stops and following trends, rather than obstinate ideologies.
This is the first week of January, which means the tone is being set now. This immediately reminds me of the semis in 2005, down 6.8% for January — but it was much worse in the trenches. I was managing money back then and I recall, very vividly, wanting to cry all over my book. It also reminds me of Q1 2014 when SAAS got fucking wrecked. The common narrative with those corrections is the fact that they bounced for a single month and then was catacombed in a bear tape till summer.
Could we be entering a bear market?
Well, the fact the Fed is interested in hiking and tapering to fend off inflation, coupled with a weaker economic backdrop, one has to muse at the possibility we are entering a worst case scenario period of STAGFLATION, whereby your buying power deprecates while you lose your job.
We have always felt there was some grand plan of malfeasance taking place, ever since the Fed started to monetize everything, now up to a staggering balance sheet of $9 trillion. Aside from all that, which is of course terrible, we now stare down the barrel of a world wide totalitarian lockdown based upon healthcare under the false guise of expertise and noble stewardship. Nothing could be further than the truth and the COVID cases and deaths continue to spiral higher, almost as fast as government officials strip freedoms and force your children to vaccinate against a virus that cannot be vaccinated against. It all paints a very bleak and terrible picture. People on the other side of the spectrum might believe me to be spewing Chicken Little styled doom.
But am I?
I closed 50% cash, long XLP, DRIP, UVXY, TZA and WCLD.
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Lose your job? There’s about 1000000 openings and they can’t find enough good people to fill them. Quit on a Friday and start work on a Monday
Some “businesses” don’t want to find people or are firing faster than they are hiring. Eg. airlines, hospitals, gov., municipal, state, military, etc. Evil anti-v persons (less than 3 v) need not apply. Others prefer to destroy demand – problem solved – Disney Cruises had required kids 5+ to vax. but do they cater to families w young kids?
Netherlands is looking to require 6 shots to be considered fully vaxed.
Some others who could take early retirement; did
Omni-flu, Build Back Better and the free ride is over. Rates go up markets and housing go down. Once we remove excess risk. We stabilize.
OMG! The DOW is 0.1% off it’s ATH!
It’s over.
BUDDY
the avg stock is down 40% from highs. The Dow isn’t the market
OMG! The S&P 500 Fucking Stonks is down 0.1% from ATH!
It’s over.
(Actually, I agree with you Fly … I know something is strangely amiss, but still my two observations are correct.)
Oops – bad data … S&P 500 down 2% from ATH on Monday.
Sorry!
What’s so bad about ending all government intervention and 5%
rates? Are not free markets healthy markets? Imagine if the stock price of company was actually factual?
Bankless 22 Predictions
Crypto total market cap reaches $5T. (Current 2.1)
Eth2 merge happens.
Bitcoin gets adopted by another nation-state.
Ethereum becomes a trillion-dollar network. (Current: .44
Layer 2 reaches $25B in total value locked.
NFT sales hit $30B.
In 2021, total NFT sales hit $15B.
One DeFi Protocol will reach the top 10 in market cap.
candidates: AAVE, UNI, YFI, COMP, SNX, & MKR, & some stronger DeFi 2.0 projects.
DAOs will make an 8-figure purchase for a real world item.
Michael Saylor buys more bitcoin.
?
One more:
Fly finally comes to his senses, gets triple vaxed and manages to escape COVID. Sadly, he catches salmonella and dies after eating undercooked chicken at Mammie’s Fried Chicken and Tire Centre.
Last one:
Fly requires proof of vaccination to use IBC. Readership skyrockets as does the average IQ of users.
“Got a pretty mouth”
1)
a number of fraudulent COVID-19 testing pop-up centers are appearing in major cities throughout the US. The Philadelphia Department of Public Health issued a warning: “Last week, the Health Department was notified of small pop-up tents that were offering free COVID-19 testing operating in Center City. The staff who worked at these sites claimed they were funded by FEMA.”
The department went on to say that these pop-up sites were in no way affiliated with FEMA.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/fake-covid-19-test-centers-appear-in-philadelphia/
2)
https://tomwoods.com/ep-2035-malice-and-woods-on-possible-scenarios-for-2022/
It is crazy how you could have seen inflation coming but if you tried to defend with the normal combo of precious metals you are getting slapped around. They’ve gone nowhere.
Inflation money all flowed into crypto. Which for many is an odd choice. I guess crypto is easier to move across a border than gold if you’re stuck in Turkey but they’re going to cut the internet eventually. Then you have nothing.
No more stimi checks, no more $300 per child per month…staples are no safe haven.
10y Treasury Yields now challenging highs set in March 2020.
Stock Bulls’ are getting their Battle of Midway and they don’t even know it’s happening. If they lose here, the war is over for them.