iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,035 Blog Posts

We’re In a Shadow Bear Market

Out of 5,465 stocks tracked inside Stocklabs, the average % from 52 week highs is -34%. If you’re uncomfy with averages due to outliers, even though with a data set as large as 5,465 it should not matter, the median return from 52 week highs is -27%.

So what the fuck is going on?

Total collapse is certainly a possibility, if only the damn bond market would follow suit. The whole market is lulled to sleep by the price action in about 10 stocks, a clever aesthetic thanks to BIG MONOPOLY IN BIG TECH to make it all look all right. But nothing is all right and Jim Biden’s retarded administration is only making things inexorably worse.

We are blessed with low rates and a technological advantage over our manufactured enemies that keeps the dollar as currency reserve and prevents us from full collapse. We can still panic, which would first be viewed in JNK, HYG and SRLN, although I doubt it. When we look the very worst is when we do the very best. Nevertheless, this is a piece of shit tape and you should expect it to get worse next year — followed up with a deterioration of the overall economy.

All booms end sometime. Given all of the backdrops, I don’t see why we should’ve recess next year.

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4 comments

  1. Orson

    Is the problem that this was never an organic 11 year boom?
    Are you implying we can’t outspend an inevitable depression?

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      People really underestimate just how much of the last 11 years was directly made possible by low inflation, and also underestimate just how screwed the supply chain is and that inflation is not going to just go away.

      It will take anywhere from 2-3 years from the bottom of the supply chain fiasco to recover, easily. And the supply chain problem has still not bottomed. We’re already 21 months or so into this and still haven’t found a bottom yet. When we look back, this is going to look like a 4-5 year long, massive problem.

      The global supply chain is basically doing what your internet router does sometimes where it gums up all the memory and gets stuck in a series of operations that drag the whole thing down. It’s a cascading failure found in complex systems. Except this isn’t a stupid router, it’s the bedrock of globalization. Shutting down global trade was the dumbest idea ever and now we either need to find a local bottom to rebuild off of or…someone needs to shut this thing down and restart it, in order of trade priority.

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      • Orson

        11 years of low, or almost no interest rates.
        Asset prices automatically/artificially rise with no carrying costs.

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        • Mr. Cain Thaler

          Exactly. And now all those rates are negative and supply and demand are way out of equilibrium.

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