It was dicey early this week and I do not think we’re setting up for massive gains; but I no longer think a panic looms and I can see us drifting higher into Thanksgiving. Following the rout on Wednesday, we recovered nicely. Today we had weakness early in small caps, but that too improved throughout the day and risk was accepted and clamored for into the close.
Mid-day I leveraged up to 150% and then swept it all away after gaining 80bps. I closed the session with 60% cash, with a bullish bias. I am comfortable with gains of 0.5% to 1.5% daily because the more I try to shoot for the 3-5% daily gains the more I end up losing. It makes little sense to risk too much, especially when, in my case, I am 15x in ETH and have turned a sub $100k cash outlay into 7figs. I will make one final purchase of ETH in December and then look to unwind the position in 2022.
Why?
I am not a fanatic. I always stated I was going to buy for two years and the returns I’ve made have exceeded anything I could have ever imagined for and will not take the present tense exuberance as an excuse to revise my original strategy.
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Yep timing sounds about right. If we didn’t fail in September / October, why would we fail now?
That also gives two more months of bad CPI / PPI prints and the holiday shopping to stretch supply lines past the point of breaking. Two more months of bond yields leaking higher a quarter of a percent each weak with small reprives in between.
If yields go higher and set where they need to be for real rates to be positive that will obviously be bad for stocks. But I am also starting to realize that could be devastating for crypto as well, depending on the actual yields.
This staking activity that’s been going on… as an example ATOM stakes at 5%. ATOM is losing money in real yield like everything else right now. What happens if interest rates go over 5%?