With gains of 6.5% in the IWM for the month of November, I am beginning to sour on the idea of chasing stocks into National Festival. This is most likely a losers bet and I’ll be sure not to let my imagination run away with itself — but I am likely to really sell the open fast and sit on the sidelines until the afternoon hours from now until then.
I was leveraged long into today and sold out of everything but two things — locking in a gain of 1.07%. I am still long CND (crypto play) and BITO calls. I am thinking if the lunatics running the asylum can jimmy $BTC to $100k by New Year’s, these options will make me a decent sum of money. This is only my second options play in many years, having retired from the world of derivatives after realizing it was bad for my health.
The market is middling today and I am sure a great many of you are sucking your own dicks, proud of yourselves for making coin in a market with AMD +10%. I will take a more sober view of things and position for the overnight trade.
Good day.
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50% cash. Hedges in place. Biggest positions BABA ana BITO via options.
Crypto up 600% in a year, around 50% in a little over a month. Everything is extended and tired looking .
All I want for xmas is a China bounce.
Reasons to be ultra careful here
1) Inflation is still momentum up, Goldman Sachs raises estimates again from 5% to 6%
2) Bond yields seem to have found a floor, despite central bank promises of low rates
3) Europe has placed their fate into the hands of an enemy who is keenly aware of what the Saudi oil embargos did to the West 50 years ago and is seemingly withholding gas
4) China housing market finally imploding, major source of global growth taken off the table
5) China trying to placate populace with common enemy; Taiwan, source of virtually all US microchips
6) Massive stock buybacks announced from numerous US companies. Stock buybacks caused by bad incentives of managers trying to juice EPS/share numbers up to attain performance incentives in face of headwinds making real growth impossible
7) Lots of signs of asset bubbles in cryptos, NFTs, stocks, and housing
8) Global GDP numbers rolling over including in the US
Reasons to be ultra bullish
1) Stonks only go up
…
Okay I’m ready for S&P 5000. Let’s do this.
A little perspective:
BTC market cap is 10.7% of gold’s.
Total crypto approx 30%; but these market cap numbers don’t mean much.
When gold spiked in the past, I believe it peaked around 7%? of assets.
This time around gold will have to share the hard money space w crypto. Will it go above 7%? In a downturn, how much will run to hard money, how much to the USD?
Place your bets.
crypto has become a hard asset? may as well squares of arctic ice sheet then.
gold is screwed in a downturn, so $US is my bet. anyway it is all a zero sum game except of course for the $US where it is far less than a zero sum game.
BTC might act as a hard asset; other cryptos, no.
gold and everything is screwed in a downturn. The winners just fall less.
Some day, we’ll find out.