This wasn’t hard to forecast. We live in an era of bailouts. There wasn’t any tangible pressure on high yield or even junk. As a matter of fact, the LTSA index is at record highs. This does not mean the markets are great and will keep going up — but it does mean we are NOT on the verge of a systemic collapse due to Evergrande — who of course will be bailed out if needed.
I sold out of my leveraged ETF positions at the open and switched to mostly stocks, up 150bps with 55% cash. We have the FOMC talking at 2:30pm and they’ll be talking taper — so this can hurt markets if words are now to the liking of those with the levers.
Presently there is a lot of sideways movement after the initial burst higher. The Dow is +350, Nasdaq +100 and I suspect we will remain range-bound until Powell gets on the mic.
NOTE: We have been in an extremely oversold range in Stocklabs for a week and our Intelligence algos suggest higher prices lie ahead. This is not a holy grail — but data based upon our technical readings during previous tapes similar to this. Whether this plays out like before is up for debate.
Con Dorleon: “We have people in the press don’t we Tom? A story of a dirty America, where the Taliban (when they’re not raping 9 year old girls & imposing sharia) are actually the ‘GOOD guys’ might just sell, right?
CNN Hagin: “You know Mikey, it just might…”
If we blow up more families getting water …will that satisfy you?
I make no day to day forecasts either way but generally suspect the next 6 weeks will be one day of FDX after the next and that the end of August was the top.
If the past 5 months are any indicator, the market should be significantly higher by October 8th or so, one week before Oct. OpEx.
The pattern of rising VIX, falling SPX one week or so before OpEx day is remarkably evident in the recent record.
Even JPo can’t f it up.
Fly has called a local bottom.
MOAR!
See: https://im.ge/i/TC7xn4
Better graph: https://im.ge/i/TCtK68
The Benjamin is America’s best business.
With a 60x PE multiple and competitor DIS announcing slowing subscriber growth, by all means, who feels like playing a game of “bet your scrotum” in NFLX?
If Powell is going to disappoint the market today then based on every ounce of pessimism and bad faith I possess we should know the answer 3 minutes before he even starts talking.
Hurray the day is saved!
Has he started speaking yet?