I knew something was afoot yesterday. Oil had been so bearish, I viewed it as beyond bearish so severely — IT WAS BULLISH! If that makes any sense to you. In other words, stocks were supposed to be down a lot more — but hadn’t. Ergo, whether my mind could reconcile it or not, prices wanted higher. So I took out an arb trade and bought PE, TECL (3x tech) and FAZ. The net result was as follows.
(FAZ -3.8%)
PE +12.9%
TECL +3.6%
There isn’t a god damned day that goes by without a major win for Señor Tropicana. Now that everything is flying off the handle, with WTI +27% to the lofty price of $14, I’ve opted the fuck out of this mess. It is of course VERY tempting to go long here, gold, oil, tech, and have a grande olde time about it. But no, fuck that. NOT INTERESTED. I am 95% cash, waiting a little bit to see if it’s a trap.
I know, you have FOMO. You need to get in and play this — but you shouldn’t. Oil is, after all, at $14 and markets are very strong and the global economy is still shut. There will be plenty of time to be a champion. Now is the time to sit back and wait patiently, while binge watching your favorite show, reading a book, or perhaps chatting with total strangers and talking shit inside of Exodus.
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Is the global economy shut or is it just vasty different now? Yes restaurants (sit down) and hair salons, sure. Obviously. But for some business is booming. Take out is working and frankly I was there for food, not the screaming kids or the overly loud person behind me. Car shops open. Home Depot where you might learn a useful skill. Workouts at home or outside. All in all, meh. It’s not a 100% shutdown. It’s different. And in CA, it might go until election time. They usually start a good idea first and then turn it political and go way overboard.
What do you call 22 million unemployed in a matter of weeks?
A distraction. How many are making more now than before?
Not as many as those who are making less and I would take a bet that those who are making less are the least able to afford it.
The stock market has not cared about that demographic in the last 10 years (maybe longer). Not sure why it matters now.
The median salary in the US is somewhere around $61,000 annually.
Even factoring in the $600 / week expanded unemployment benefits, at most unemployment annualized income is around $46,800 in the state of Michigan. The full benefit will of course vary by each state. And that assumes you made enough money before hand to qualify for the full state weekly benefit, which is hardly clear.
So remind me what was the state of citizen budgets prior to this meltdown again? 90% spend ratio with $800 in savings… and those grand $600 weekly benefits set to expire in July no less.
I collected UE once and received no where near that for months, minimal savings. We made it. 4g a month ain’t bad…if it’s not enough cut grass, do taxes, paint, whatever.
Ok now instead of median do the quintile where most job losses occurred
Why exactly do you believe the losses were concentrated in the lower quintiles?
The sectors furloughing workers – auto, airlines, tourism – do not employ lower quintile salaries. This recession is not concentrated in the food industry.
every days feel like a trap.
Correct, I’m in your camp.
I’m getting worried about the Fuhrer’s chances…
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/trumps-handling-of-coronavirus-may-further-alienate-seniors.html
His black support has always been in the toilet but he still manages to make new lows.
I frankly do want him to be the disgusting face of the GOP for another 4 years.
Get ready for a Trump dynasty! Meanwhile, you will still be a beta incel. Hopefully the stress will give you cancer and you suffer a slow death. Good luck!
Hey, thanks. I’ve been ready. Meanwhile, your insults continue to be repetitive.
BTW, I’ll always be an alpha.
And, again, I must remind you I offered $20k on the two bets that you keep dodging.
You being a racist bigoted black fuck explains a lot. I just won a crypto bet with another internet retard and he never paid, of course. I don’t expect you to pay either, so fuck off
Start with picking an auditor and we’ll go from there. I already said it’s your choice (EY, PWC, KPMG, whatever you prefer).
We’ll have them set up an escrow account for us.
Forget the auditors, not easier to set up escrow here, but cheaper & more efficient:
https://kleros.io/en/escrow
Yes, I own it.
WD, the orange turd has killed conservatism for at least a generation. A high price to pay for entertaining a bunch of nazi hillbillies.
Although at present I see no choice but to align with the left, the loss of true conservative values will have consequences.
Fuck you and every other right wing fascist retard.
Nixon was the last “conservative” president who “balanced the budget” (barely) more than half a century ago:
https://www.thebalance.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306
Chelse, MA, did a small test of peopel on the street, and 64/200 tested postive for COVID-19 antibodies. Given testing inaccuracies and the selection bias (people walking outside are likely to exhibit less social distancing than the overall popualtion), I think that would mean 20-25% population exposure in Chelsea.
“Herd Resistance approaching!”
Sure – for **Chelsea**, which had a *confirmed* inefction rate of 1.8% last wendesday. At the time the confirmed infection rate for the us was 0.18%, and even today it is 0.22%, so if you expand the confirmed/total ratio to the US, that would mean that roughly 2% of the US population has been exposed to COVID-19.
Also, as of April 7:
The case rate in New York City was 915.3 confirmed cases/100,000
The case rate in New York state was 555.5 confirmed cases/100,000
The case rate in California was 40.1 confirmed cases/100,000.
The case rate in Wyoming was 38.3 confirmed cases/100,000.
You’re like a broken fucking record.
Thanks for reinforcing my point.
This data and report are new, but it sound the same to you because it’s confirming what I said before: while everyone know that actaul infections are much higher than confirmed cases, they are still very low and nowhere near herd resistance levels.
we are nowhere near herd immunity. fact.
NY, CA, and WY don’t matter. It’s all nice and good that it’s hitting random nursing homes in shithole country like Oklahoma but I need it to focus on the swing states:
https://www.fourstateshomepage.com/news/joplin-news-first/oklahoma-state-health-officials-confirm-nine-dead-at-grove-nursing-home-attributed-to-covid-19/
I only posted that because I was surprised at how low CA was coampred to the others.
A big chuck of CA is just dirt/desert.
CA took action sooner than most …despite their creepy Speaker saying go out and party.
Qs and SPY high and tight off of yesterday’s closing lows …a set-up targeting Monday gap fill and beyond IMO. Not long here ..and if the set-up fails, I’ll short the failure.
No clarity in the stock market today. Just boredom.
Waiting for the Euro to drop a couple dozen more pips to consider a long scalp though.
It’s clear enough, keep manipulating higher.
Maybe. I still expect lower price going forward (in the coming weeks).
These slow drifts are not actionable for my bots. Nor do I see any directional bet worth placing manually at the moment. Right before European open my algos did some short scalps circa ES 2760s–but that’s almost 10 hours ago.
*lower prices
I don’t use algos but If I did the core would be buy whenever a crash ought to occur.
I bought some POS oil patch names yesterday for a quick buck.
Oh yeah. GG on the oil stocks. Sounds easy enough.
If I was still managing accounts for income, I’d go long the strongest oil names and short the weakest ones (that will likely go bankrupt eventually).
The markets are a crash waiting to happen the Powers are having none of it. You can only push a string so far.
I’m 100% cash. Dazed and Confused. The song of the day.
I’ll watch and wait. That honeydo list is more daunting than the markets…might have to hire someone before I get divorced.
They are predicting a famine of biblical proportion in different parts of the world. The poorest areas will get hit hardest. A fucking retard is at the wheel… It’s only beginning.
In the meantime, stocks are still going up for us gentlemen of the outlier class and the wealth gap is being push to heights unseen since 1928.
all very troubling in this earth day 2020…
So, with all this extra discretionary money and anguish I invite you to get this ooler chilli pad to ensure a good night sleep.
https://www.chilitechnology.com/products/ooler-sleep-system
The ticks have become so engorged that they are touching blood sack to blood sack …and have formed an exoskeleton over the dog. Ticks are now wondering: Does the dog have enough internal skeleton left? And what will happen when a neighboring tick weakens the exoskeleton? Should I get out first? How will I fair in the coming disruption? Where should I go?
Unfortunately there is, as yet, no evidence that the ticks are willing to do anything to save the dog. Yeah, they like the dog alright. They have done well riding the dog. “But I can’t save the dog and I know that that other tick will take free money and kill the dog ..so I have to look out for me and mine.”
This tick is taking a quick sip and jumping off. Looking for a fresh dog.
Another piece of childhood dies:
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3561921-department-stores-hope-to-avoid-neiman-marcus-fate
Yeah the first gun I got with my own money I ordered from JCPenny catalog.
Down here we usually try them out before buying. Establishments like this are not difficult to find:
https://www.yelp.com/biz/range-guns-and-safes-atlanta
LOL. I didn’t know any better. I just turned 18.
It was unique though. I just walked up to the catalog counter and picked it up.
“This Savage 12 ga double dbl barrel is big 3″ inch mag. Save.”
You don’t have to be Chinese to fuck up English.
Drive a good 30 minutes away from the perimeter and you can spot idiots like that (Trump’s base) quite promptly.
MAGA
Volume totally dried up. Just the fed buying and a couple of sellers out there. This is a COVID market.
US reopening + Fed Bucks = new bull market.