Oil is $13, down 35% for the day and Exxon is down only 1%. Crazy world we live in where reality is impossible to determine from fantasy, an ephemeral world filled with wizards and monetary gurus who work tirelessly to create a fiction to sustain the facade we live in today.
All things must end, I’m just not sure we have it in us to do it now. It takes courage to admit to something horrible. It’s a lot easier to be a coward, look into the camera lens and say “buy the dip.”
This whole system is based off a series of lies, one stacked on top of another. The scheme is so grande, it’s believable because of its size. Nothing this big could be fraudulent. Why didn’t anyone say anything before?
Because we’re only down 600 and not 3,000, I am having a difficult time reconciling the price action and so I sold almost everything.
The results.
JNUG – wash
(AG -4%)
EURN +3%
SWN +6.3%
DRV +8.1%
FAZ +6.6%
TZA +4.3%
VIR – wash
(NET -4.6%)
(TWLO -5.4%)
(ARWR -0.7%)
(ESPR -1.4%)
(AHPI -12%)
I am 90% cash now, one long and one inverse ETF. My sense is for sharply lower prices, should reality seep thru. But I am BEARISH on reality and believe something is afoot here — because oil at $13 should spell doom for the $1 trillion+ in petrol debt. But HYG is up — because the Fed is buying it. The Fed is buying everything to make sure bond holders are protected and to avoid mark to market at banks and to insure swap holders do not get paid. This is the world we live in — lies on top of lies to keep the party going. I should be rooting for more party, but my soul isn’t black enough to support it.
At the end of the day, more harm than good comes from propping up a lie. More people get sucked in and the longer is last — the more resounding the ramifications.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Do you really think we re-test the lows?
Definitely.
70% of those PPP loans went to public companies. SMH https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/large-public-companies-are-taking-small-businesses-payroll-loans.html
Thats because most small businesses are run by idiots who can’t fill out a 2 page application.
@og What the real small business didn’t get it? You mean it was big small business with Prez friends? No.. who woulda guess that $350B didn’t go to Joe the Plumber. Shocker.
My fav is Walmart go so much backlash for not paying workers and letting them go in federal assistance when employed. And yet DIS took that and ran with it. Walmart is smart! Sell cheap stuff. Pay nothing. Let the taxpapers cover the workers. They make profits. All companies should follow suit.
We should have blown through last months lows. I’ve been short hotels since March and nada. Tell me who is buying travel leisure, its dead for at least a year after this.
They are definitely straight up printing and buying shit, not even repo jsut straight up buying the market.
I guess by your reasoning that means most investors are dumbfucks who can’t read a market right 😉
That sums it up Fly. Oil crashes, Trump promises help.
Everything is being propped up but should be down. No one has any idea what the price of anything should be. Except lower, but intervention.
The biggest risk is if the government says we’re done.
HYG topped the day the FED said they would buy some non-investmetn grade bonds. If you checke the numbers, the purcahse amount was more symbolic (confidence boost) than anything else.
The smart money sold out. The dumb money waited for a better offer.
As of a few days ago the fed had bought no junk, at least nothing was in that account. Could have only been talk.
At the end of the day, the stock market is going to follow earnings. Not Fed market operations or federal unemployment programs locking people in at 85% the median salary or negative oil prices or even the virus.
The market will go where earnings go. So do we think earnings are going to make a full recovery by September 1?
Next month’s IBC headline:
” FED PRINTS 25T TO BUY ENTIRE FUCKING S&P”
Lol M1 expanding by $25T in fractional reserve banking would create at least $250T is lending.
I had this Armenian teacher once – mathematician who specialized in the subject of fluid mechanics – who was set to come to America back in 1991-93 (I forget the exact specifics).
The university had wired him the money in Soviet rubles so he could buy a ticket. The night before, the currency collapsed and he couldn’t buy a hot dog with it the next morning.
I get it.
A truck load of hotdogs is worth more than the S&P?
mitigate damage to important sectors is about all we can expect from government. they might facilitate finding buyers for defaulting companies. bail-in will apply and common shareholders are toasted. the mark to market issue is threatening so that is likely being watched closely.
Another antibody study came out, but they didn’t release data, only their results. This is important, because they were using a highly inaccurate test.
The study says that LA county had a 4.1% exposure rate, but they used a test with a stated accuracy of 90-95%. Of course that means that if 0% of the popultaion has COVID-19, the test will still show a 5-10% postive rate.
Assume 4.1% of a population have COVID-19 antibodies.
1000 people -> 41 actually have antibodies, 959 don’t
So here are the test results expected
863-911, have no antibodies and test negative
48-96, have no antibodies and test positive
37-39, have antibodies and test postive
2-4 have antibodies and test negative
Summing it up: 85-135 will test postive for antibodies: this is 8.5% – 13.5% of the population, which is 2-3 times the infected population!
http://createsend.com/t/j-296D9D8CE54262BB2540EF23F30FEDED
https://pressroom.usc.edu/what-a-usc-la-county-antibody-study-can-teach-us-about-covid-19/
Some of you may have also figured out why this leads to another huge problem in reopenign the country: with the test above and a 4.1% infection rate, then roughly somehwere between 1/2 and 2/3 of peope lthat test positive for COVID-19 antibodies ***have never been exposed to COVID-19 and are suscpetible***.
If the actual antibody rate is 2%, then the positve test rate would be 6.7-11.7%, which woudl mean that as few as 1 out of 6 people who test positve actaully have immunity.
Well fuck me. It really is a numbersgame.
Little bit more of this and we will see a day when “SPY and QQQ were allowed to trade in negative values”.
Bought a little UGAZ. Things will not be boring for me.
Two questions – and I haven’t read the other comments, so excuse me if somebody already addresses these:
1) Is something really fraudulent when the ones who make the rules are doing it?
2) Why does oil crashing matter to the rest of the market? Energy is only 2.6% of the SPX and lower oil should mean lower input costs for businesses and consumers when the economy resumes.