Good job Fly, Jr.
I hope Fly, Sr. paid you something or at least contributes a little extra something to your college adventure.
P.S. to Fly, Jr. – At least he shouldn’t make you walk the Wolf/Dog when you visit from School.
When I retired (getting bored) I was thinking of running a food truck and selling Chicago style dogs (all the way-dragged thru the garden). Vienna dogs on a steamed poppy roll with bright green relish, mustard, tomato, onion, pickle spear, sport peppers, and celery salt. I was going to Hot Dog Univ. and get my PHD (Prof. of Hot Dogs). https://www.viennabeef.com/behind-the-grill/hot-dog-university/
After adding up costs of getting a used truck plus the pile of various permits I nixed the idea.
There was an investment letter writer after dot com crash, (with Gold … name I have forgotten), who claimed these crashes and rally backs are meticulously planned deep inside WS. Today there are only few big firms left, making their job far easier. I keep wondering, pretty sophisticated crowd here, and few are long with conviction, who is buying?
In my IRA a couple of weeks ago I started scaling into some energy names: SLB,HAL,OIH etf,VDE etf. Not a bad return thus far. Everybody hates energy. I was a bit surprised when most were up about 10% on Friday with crude tumbling yet again. These are for at least two to three month holds. I haven’t bought this sector in years and years.
I’m usually early. I bought GDX, GDXJ gold mining etfs 60%+ ago and sold them all last week. It’s a sector one buys when timers are bearish and sell when bullish like last week when it was almost 100% bullish.
Sound reasoning re PMs. I’m still hold a large silver trading position …as I follow my technical mo indicators like a trained chimp. But a sell may be triggered on Monday …or not.
Silver befuddles me. It should have been taking off like gold but it really hasn’t. You know, the historic gold/silver ratio we are presently at and which most are writing about.
Probably has much to do with no real industrial demand now and the fact that the dollar has been going up against most currencies as a safe haven along with gold.
I think when the dollar finally starts to go down and emerging market currencies wake up (some day when interest rates dictate) then silver should go nuts to the upside.
The fact that it really didn’t take off with gold is not a good sign.
Numbers- also any big money with an interest in buoying the markets.
What do they have in mind? Fuckery of course.
Big money will protect itself at all costs. The rest of us are cannonfodder.
No idea. But I can say the capital investors I know don’t sell. Selling is only when poor management decisions etc come to light. All excess income is invested. Very low % cash and no market timing except to snatch up excesses. I have no business here except to read the Fly.
For anybody that thinks we are close to herd resistance because “everybody has it”, I have some bad news.
A recent study measured that only 1.5% of tested subjects in Santa Clara County, CA, had COVID-19 antibodies.
The subjects were propositioned through FaceBook, but were then self-selected, which suggests to me that volunteers suspected that they had exposure and the actual prevelance was even lower. Due to an “over-representation of white women between the ages of 19 and 64”, the final results were balanced by zip code, gender, and race – but not age, which gave a weighted estimate of 2.49% to 4.16% for total exposure in Santa Clara County.
Santa Clara was one of the first areas hit, so I expect the overall US exposure rate to be lower, right near my 1% estimate.
Even at 4.5% that’s only 15 million Americans at most.
Other study I saw from King county (Seattle) shows that perhaps 25/10,000 people are currently infected. That’s after all the lockdown.
And these were people who volunteered, many with self reported symptoms.
Taken together to me these data suggest rapid increase in infections should we open up right now without testing / isolation proticols.
To be fair these are two small studies from the west coast and I’ve seen other efforts that suggest previous infection rates could already be much higher like 1/3 of population in some places. Either way this shows how low the death rate likely really is <1%.
Also highlights the major need for testing and like we don't even have FUCKING SWABS.
the santa clara study confirmed that coronavirus (a cold virus) is more widespread and therefore certainly less deadly than MSM would have you believe.
This obsession of finding coronaviruses “true” mortality rate is misplaced. Do we know the true mortality rate of any disease? Of course not. The flu’s stated mortality rate suffers from all the same problems as this one.
More important, reported cases and hospitalized cases are both good predictor variables of mortality. We don’t need to perfectly understand the exact probability to get insights into the potential for damage.
The economy is going to be slow to reopen. This process will consume the rest of the year.
Reported cases is a **terrible** inidicator for COVID-19. How do you knwo how many people have unreported very mild cases vs how many have simply not gotten infected?
“insights into the potential for damage.”
-> ie, how many people could die in the worst case scenario
-> ie, estiamting COVID-19 “true” mortality rate
Separately:
Dear ROW, please continue to support the $ as we create ever more of them for the sake of political expediency. If you don’t, we’ll sodomize you with a bayonet.
Also separately …to any docs out there …is an SP02 of 94% in the low normal range as the internet suggests …or does it warrant the “severe” classification that Gilead reportedly used?
Anyway, either they’re confident that they are going to create a large increase in inflation or this market is still due for a radical adjustment lower over the coming weeks.
PO2 of 94% is still borderline normal. We consider 95-100% as normal. Medicare approves Oxygen therapy at 88% or lower. I saw a patient last week, with PO2 of 66%, she died 2 days later.
Or we could get our titans of industry to do some nice power points slides on what a web enabled bayonet should look like … and then ask the Chinese to make it for us
Keep in mind that 94 was the *pre-screening* ox-levels. It is assumed that they would have gotten worse without any treatement.
Also, given that a large portion is asymptomatic, and a large portion do get symptoms but don’t need oxygen, perhaps under 94 is not life threatenign but is a “severe” form of the disease relatively speaking.
I heard recently that the problem is that cotton swabs are made from a plant, hence they have DNA. The testing swaps have to be made from artificail materials such as polyester. No idea at all if this is true.
Fascinating to see the state governors implement so many different strategies for reopening. Lol Florida. We’ll have a lot of good data soon. I’m keeping an open mind.
Trump tryign to paly both sides: pressuring states to open whil sayign it is up to te governors. Will continue to hammer all the closed states, while wahign hands for any spieks in opening states.
Every govornor should make sure to conuslt with the White House and the CDC (they are the experts) and get that on the record:
– If they stay closed, “well, we talekd with Trumps’ CDC and they recommended that we stay clsoed”
– If they open, “We talekd with the White House/Trump and they said that we are good for moving to phase 1”
Despite the rhetoric on the rigt and from Trump, this is not the flu.
Despite the rhetoric from the left and from the media, not every state is the same and Phase 1 still has a lot of distancing. The key is containment and quarantining asymptomatic carriers through contact tracing.
BTW, the way to open up places is to not let people through the front door.
1) Restaurants shoudl be 1000 take-out delivery,
2) Small retails stores shoudl have go-fors to retrieve waht custoerms want
3) Churches, schools , bars, sport evenst closed for several months – everywhere. Some (red-state) people seem to be under the impression that you can ony catch COVID-19 whiel your are presently near someoen that has it. However, surface-hand-face is stil la vector. Why do you think CDC says to wash your hands?
made in china?
You should have your books listed in the mix., linking to Amazon to order.
Don’t forget some exclusive, signed and framed chart art
Hey Fly, do you already have someone lined up to produce these items?
If not, I got a guy who can source this stuff and he won’t rip you off.
Good job Fly, Jr.
I hope Fly, Sr. paid you something or at least contributes a little extra something to your college adventure.
P.S. to Fly, Jr. – At least he shouldn’t make you walk the Wolf/Dog when you visit from School.
Cool stuff I’ll probably get a shirt – do you make tanks tops? Sun’s out guns out, know what I’m saying?
Crypto confirming the move up / enthusiasm today.
Also found a guy online who’s on Day 33 of consecutive Grateful Dead Quarantine sets. Pretty fucking rad!
Will get tank top up later
that’s only like 6 songs (live).
WRONG
They have so many.
Have you started on weed gummies yet
Yes, took two and on the recommendation of a friend, listened to the 11/11/73 Dark Star. Now I’m a GD fan.
Lol, I got it.
MERCH ? WTF ! Maybe a youtube channel or pizza reviews.
I will do hot dog reviews.
When I retired (getting bored) I was thinking of running a food truck and selling Chicago style dogs (all the way-dragged thru the garden). Vienna dogs on a steamed poppy roll with bright green relish, mustard, tomato, onion, pickle spear, sport peppers, and celery salt. I was going to Hot Dog Univ. and get my PHD (Prof. of Hot Dogs). https://www.viennabeef.com/behind-the-grill/hot-dog-university/
After adding up costs of getting a used truck plus the pile of various permits I nixed the idea.
I like this idea. Just please don’t boil your hot dogs like most of the places around me. It’s so wrong-headed.
Trader, that’s a great idea. I’m surprised no one ever thought of that before.
Oh, wait…
There was an investment letter writer after dot com crash, (with Gold … name I have forgotten), who claimed these crashes and rally backs are meticulously planned deep inside WS. Today there are only few big firms left, making their job far easier. I keep wondering, pretty sophisticated crowd here, and few are long with conviction, who is buying?
In my IRA a couple of weeks ago I started scaling into some energy names: SLB,HAL,OIH etf,VDE etf. Not a bad return thus far. Everybody hates energy. I was a bit surprised when most were up about 10% on Friday with crude tumbling yet again. These are for at least two to three month holds. I haven’t bought this sector in years and years.
I’m usually early. I bought GDX, GDXJ gold mining etfs 60%+ ago and sold them all last week. It’s a sector one buys when timers are bearish and sell when bullish like last week when it was almost 100% bullish.
Sound reasoning re PMs. I’m still hold a large silver trading position …as I follow my technical mo indicators like a trained chimp. But a sell may be triggered on Monday …or not.
Silver befuddles me. It should have been taking off like gold but it really hasn’t. You know, the historic gold/silver ratio we are presently at and which most are writing about.
Probably has much to do with no real industrial demand now and the fact that the dollar has been going up against most currencies as a safe haven along with gold.
I think when the dollar finally starts to go down and emerging market currencies wake up (some day when interest rates dictate) then silver should go nuts to the upside.
The fact that it really didn’t take off with gold is not a good sign.
Buying: retail investors ( FOMO), pension funds
Numbers- also any big money with an interest in buoying the markets.
What do they have in mind? Fuckery of course.
Big money will protect itself at all costs. The rest of us are cannonfodder.
No idea. But I can say the capital investors I know don’t sell. Selling is only when poor management decisions etc come to light. All excess income is invested. Very low % cash and no market timing except to snatch up excesses. I have no business here except to read the Fly.
So, what’s with the fag in the t-shirt,,?
For anybody that thinks we are close to herd resistance because “everybody has it”, I have some bad news.
A recent study measured that only 1.5% of tested subjects in Santa Clara County, CA, had COVID-19 antibodies.
The subjects were propositioned through FaceBook, but were then self-selected, which suggests to me that volunteers suspected that they had exposure and the actual prevelance was even lower. Due to an “over-representation of white women between the ages of 19 and 64”, the final results were balanced by zip code, gender, and race – but not age, which gave a weighted estimate of 2.49% to 4.16% for total exposure in Santa Clara County.
Santa Clara was one of the first areas hit, so I expect the overall US exposure rate to be lower, right near my 1% estimate.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
Even at 4.5% that’s only 15 million Americans at most.
Other study I saw from King county (Seattle) shows that perhaps 25/10,000 people are currently infected. That’s after all the lockdown.
And these were people who volunteered, many with self reported symptoms.
Taken together to me these data suggest rapid increase in infections should we open up right now without testing / isolation proticols.
To be fair these are two small studies from the west coast and I’ve seen other efforts that suggest previous infection rates could already be much higher like 1/3 of population in some places. Either way this shows how low the death rate likely really is <1%.
Also highlights the major need for testing and like we don't even have FUCKING SWABS.
You’re scary, I haven’t drawn my will yet.
the santa clara study confirmed that coronavirus (a cold virus) is more widespread and therefore certainly less deadly than MSM would have you believe.
Blah blah blah MSM blah blah blah
I just said it was less than one percent
I know Heckler. My comment was in response to Debby Downer
This obsession of finding coronaviruses “true” mortality rate is misplaced. Do we know the true mortality rate of any disease? Of course not. The flu’s stated mortality rate suffers from all the same problems as this one.
More important, reported cases and hospitalized cases are both good predictor variables of mortality. We don’t need to perfectly understand the exact probability to get insights into the potential for damage.
The economy is going to be slow to reopen. This process will consume the rest of the year.
Reported cases is a **terrible** inidicator for COVID-19. How do you knwo how many people have unreported very mild cases vs how many have simply not gotten infected?
“insights into the potential for damage.”
-> ie, how many people could die in the worst case scenario
-> ie, estiamting COVID-19 “true” mortality rate
As long as the method of reporting remains consistent, it doesn’t matter from the angle of modeling.
We need a predictor variable to build a model. Reported cases is suitable with certain caveats.
Fly, why would you sell T-shirts that don’t have you website on it? I think you need “iBankCoin.com” on 100% of your merch.
Also, free iBC OFFICIAL (with iBankCoin logo/name…) T-shirt for new Exodus members (maybe old members, too)
-> Marketing 101
(If you dont think that is worth the $20 arketing cost, just raise Exodus prices by $20 and include the “free” shirt!)
Nice shirt Fly. Can I get one free?
Best wishes on your new endeavor Fly and family.
Separately:
Dear ROW, please continue to support the $ as we create ever more of them for the sake of political expediency. If you don’t, we’ll sodomize you with a bayonet.
Also separately …to any docs out there …is an SP02 of 94% in the low normal range as the internet suggests …or does it warrant the “severe” classification that Gilead reportedly used?
Anyway, either they’re confident that they are going to create a large increase in inflation or this market is still due for a radical adjustment lower over the coming weeks.
Radical adjustment IMO. Bull case is Fed is God. Straddles for me.
PO2 of 94% is still borderline normal. We consider 95-100% as normal. Medicare approves Oxygen therapy at 88% or lower. I saw a patient last week, with PO2 of 66%, she died 2 days later.
All bayonet manufacturing is now done in China.
Maybe we could get all the Etsy home crafters to knit some for us.
Or we could get our titans of industry to do some nice power points slides on what a web enabled bayonet should look like … and then ask the Chinese to make it for us
Keep in mind that 94 was the *pre-screening* ox-levels. It is assumed that they would have gotten worse without any treatement.
Also, given that a large portion is asymptomatic, and a large portion do get symptoms but don’t need oxygen, perhaps under 94 is not life threatenign but is a “severe” form of the disease relatively speaking.
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/04/17/took-ls-still-game/#comment-570928
Too many perhapes. I expect at least two decimal place precision from “Numbers”!
SWABS are literally a piece of wood and cotton WTF
Everything has been weird as fuck regarding tests from the get go, right? What is your opine on phish?
Some of my friends like them, but I’m not really a Phish guy
I heard recently that the problem is that cotton swabs are made from a plant, hence they have DNA. The testing swaps have to be made from artificail materials such as polyester. No idea at all if this is true.
Fly, what’s the word on the podcast idea you were entertaining? Btw – Nice job fly jr.
Fly, any chance of putting some bath tissue on the site, preferably triple-ply?
Asking for a friend.
Fascinating to see the state governors implement so many different strategies for reopening. Lol Florida. We’ll have a lot of good data soon. I’m keeping an open mind.
Trump tryign to paly both sides: pressuring states to open whil sayign it is up to te governors. Will continue to hammer all the closed states, while wahign hands for any spieks in opening states.
Every govornor should make sure to conuslt with the White House and the CDC (they are the experts) and get that on the record:
– If they stay closed, “well, we talekd with Trumps’ CDC and they recommended that we stay clsoed”
– If they open, “We talekd with the White House/Trump and they said that we are good for moving to phase 1”
Despite the rhetoric on the rigt and from Trump, this is not the flu.
Despite the rhetoric from the left and from the media, not every state is the same and Phase 1 still has a lot of distancing. The key is containment and quarantining asymptomatic carriers through contact tracing.
BTW, the way to open up places is to not let people through the front door.
1) Restaurants shoudl be 1000 take-out delivery,
2) Small retails stores shoudl have go-fors to retrieve waht custoerms want
3) Churches, schools , bars, sport evenst closed for several months – everywhere. Some (red-state) people seem to be under the impression that you can ony catch COVID-19 whiel your are presently near someoen that has it. However, surface-hand-face is stil la vector. Why do you think CDC says to wash your hands?
Hopefully you own a bit of Shopify but why didn’t you go for your own url?