March Retail Sales -8.7% — RECORD LOWS
April Empire State Manufacturing -78.2 — RECORD LOWS
BBY posted -30% YOY sales
GS, BAC and C posted worse than expected results due to loan losses, mark downs, and heightened reserved in preparation for more losses.
WTI is under $20 and the DAX is lower by 3.4%.
US futures are down more than 500, an it appears, the smugness will be wiped clean from the faces of bulls this morning. However, I am almost certain they will buy dips today and will not be sufficiently punished for their misdeeds with anything shorts of a 2,000 point rout. I suspect I will sell numerous stocks today and I also suspect I will increase my bearish bets. I suspect my FAZ position will skyrocket and the good fortune I’ve recently enjoyed via wild eyed gambits will come to an end. That is ok — since a shift in markets to the downside will make it inexorably easier to make money on bearish bets, since we’ve run up so effervescently without a care in the world.
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I thought we’d tag 3000 on the SP. Oh well.
I have puts. Sell the longs, get more puts. Simple.
Don’t worry, DT will just print some more money.
My brokerage account is up 11% today. Even my one long is up a little.
I think I’m going to lighten up quite a bit on BTC for now. That little bitch is trading less like gold and more like CL, or the DJI – which has kinda been okay but also not what I was hoping for.
TMF and BTC equal dollar amounts rebalancing monthly.
you want to believe BTC will behave like TMF?
OR you KNOW BTC will behave like TMF?
in the ten year long run your crypto return will be half of what it would have been if you held
in the short run every crack in the crypto market will be filled in partially by a gain in bond prices.
I hold way more crypto this way than i would be able to stomach without the bond fund.
https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/BTC-USD#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MSwidGltZVVuaXQiOm51bGwsImNhbmRsZVdpZHRoIjoxMi4wMDk1MjM4MDk1MjM4MSwiZmxpcHBlZCI6ZmFsc2UsInZvbHVtZVVuZGVybGF5Ijp0cnVlLCJhZGoiOnRydWUsImNyb3NzaGFpciI6dHJ1ZSwiY2hhcnRUeXBlIjoibGluZSIsImV4dGVuZGVkIjpmYWxzZSwibWFya2V0U2Vzc2lvbnMiOnt9LCJhZ2dyZWdhdGlvblR5cGUiOiJvaGxjIiwiY2hhcnRTY2FsZSI6InBlcmNlbnQiLCJwYW5lbHMiOnsiY2hhcnQiOnsicGVyY2VudCI6MC43OTk5OTk5OTk5OTk5OTk5LCJkaXNwbGF5IjoiQlRDLVVTRCIsImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0IiwiaW5kZXgiOjAsInlBeGlzIjp7Im5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsInBvc2l0aW9uIjpudWxsfSwieWF4aXNMSFMiOltdLCJ5YXhpc1JIUyI6WyJjaGFydCIsIuKAjHZvbCB1bmRy4oCMIl19LCLigIxyc2nigIwgKDE0LEMpIjp7InBlcmNlbnQiOjAuMjAwMDAwMDAwMDAwMDAwMDQsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIxyc2nigIwgKDE0LEMpIiwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJpbmRleCI6MSwieUF4aXMiOnsibmFtZSI6IuKAjHJzaeKAjCAoMTQsQykiLCJwb3NpdGlvbiI6bnVsbH0sInlheGlzTEhTIjpbXSwieWF4aXNSSFMiOlsi4oCMcnNp4oCMICgxNCxDKSJdfX0sInNldFNwYW4iOnsibXVsdGlwbGllciI6MiwiYmFzZSI6InllYXIiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6eyJwZXJpb2QiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoid2VlayJ9LCJtYWludGFpblBlcmlvZGljaXR5Ijp0cnVlLCJmb3JjZUxvYWQiOnRydWV9LCJsaW5lV2lkdGgiOjIsInN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdW5kIjp0cnVlLCJldmVudHMiOnRydWUsImNvbG9yIjoiIzAwOWM1NiIsInN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdWQiOnRydWUsImV2ZW50TWFwIjp7ImNvcnBvcmF0ZSI6eyJkaXZzIjp0cnVlLCJzcGxpdHMiOnRydWV9LCJzaWdEZXYiOnt9fSwic3ltYm9scyI6W3sic3ltYm9sIjoiQlRDLVVTRCIsInN5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1ib2wiOiJCVEMtVVNEIiwicXVvdGVUeXBlIjoiQ1JZUFRPQ1VSUkVOQ1kiLCJleGNoYW5nZVRpbWVab25lIjoiRXVyb3BlL0xvbmRvbiJ9LCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJ3ZWVrIiwidGltZVVuaXQiOm51bGwsInNldFNwYW4iOnsibXVsdGlwbGllciI6MiwiYmFzZSI6InllYXIiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6eyJwZXJpb2QiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoid2VlayJ9LCJtYWludGFpblBlcmlvZGljaXR5Ijp0cnVlLCJmb3JjZUxvYWQiOnRydWV9fSx7InN5bWJvbCI6IlRNRiIsInN5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1ib2wiOiJUTUYifSwicGVyaW9kaWNpdHkiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoid2VlayIsInRpbWVVbml0IjpudWxsLCJzZXRTcGFuIjp7Im11bHRpcGxpZXIiOjIsImJhc2UiOiJ5ZWFyIiwicGVyaW9kaWNpdHkiOnsicGVyaW9kIjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsifSwibWFpbnRhaW5QZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6dHJ1ZSwiZm9yY2VMb2FkIjp0cnVlfSwiaWQiOiJUTUYiLCJwYXJhbWV0ZXJzIjp7ImNvbG9yIjoiIzcyZDNmZiIsIndpZHRoIjoyLCJpc0NvbXBhcmlzb24iOnRydWUsInNoYXJlWUF4aXMiOnRydWUsImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0Iiwic3ltYm9sT2JqZWN0Ijp7InN5bWJvbCI6IlRNRiJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0IiwiZmlsbEdhcHMiOmZhbHNlLCJhY3Rpb24iOiJhZGQtc2VyaWVzIiwic3ltYm9sIjoiVE1GIiwiZ2FwRGlzcGxheVN0eWxlIjoidHJhbnNwYXJlbnQiLCJuYW1lIjoiVE1GIiwib3ZlckNoYXJ0Ijp0cnVlLCJ1c2VDaGFydExlZ2VuZCI6dHJ1ZSwiaGVpZ2h0UGVyY2VudGFnZSI6MC43LCJvcGFjaXR5IjoxLCJoaWdobGlnaHRhYmxlIjp0cnVlLCJ0eXBlIjoibGluZSIsInN0eWxlIjoic3R4X2xpbmVfY2hhcnQiLCJoaWdobGlnaHQiOmZhbHNlfX1dLCJjdXN0b21SYW5nZSI6bnVsbCwid2lkdGgiOjIsInN0dWRpZXMiOnsi4oCMdm9sIHVuZHLigIwiOnsidHlwZSI6InZvbCB1bmRyIiwiaW5wdXRzIjp7ImlkIjoi4oCMdm9sIHVuZHLigIwiLCJkaXNwbGF5Ijoi4oCMdm9sIHVuZHLigIwifSwib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJVcCBWb2x1bWUiOiIjMDBiMDYxIiwiRG93biBWb2x1bWUiOiIjZmYzMzNhIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJwYXJhbWV0ZXJzIjp7IndpZHRoRmFjdG9yIjowLjQ1LCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsInBhbmVsTmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0In19LCLigIxyc2nigIwgKDE0LEMpIjp7InR5cGUiOiJyc2kiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiUGVyaW9kIjoxNCwiRmllbGQiOiJDbG9zZSIsImlkIjoi4oCMcnNp4oCMICgxNCxDKSIsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIxyc2nigIwgKDE0LEMpIn0sIm91dHB1dHMiOnsiUlNJIjoiI2FkNmVmZiJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6IuKAjHJzaeKAjCAoMTQsQykiLCJwYXJhbWV0ZXJzIjp7InN0dWR5T3ZlclpvbmVzRW5hYmxlZCI6dHJ1ZSwic3R1ZHlPdmVyQm91Z2h0VmFsdWUiOjgwLCJzdHVkeU92ZXJCb3VnaHRDb2xvciI6IiM3OWY0YmQiLCJzdHVkeU92ZXJTb2xkVmFsdWUiOjIwLCJzdHVkeU92ZXJTb2xkQ29sb3IiOiIjZmY4MDg0IiwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJwYW5lbE5hbWUiOiLigIxyc2nigIwgKDE0LEMpIn19fX0%3D
link didn’t work. look at BTC and TMF chart comparison over the past 6 months.
interesting perspective thanks dude!
Let’s look at worst case scenario econmically: the US dollar loses its reserve status: That is the best case scenario for crypto currenceies *as an asset class*. However, waht you will want/need is an actaul crypto***currency**.
A currency is something that is **widely used and accepted** as payment for goods and services and has a **stable value**. Bitcoin’s inherent design is a major obstacle to its becoming a true currrency.
i for one am not expecting to pay my cell phone bill in crypto at any point, ever.
but i am expecting BTC and GLD to perform more and more like TMF
Until TMF implodes, at which point BTC and/or physical gold prices hit the moon.
and at THAT point. .22LR and 9mm rounds will be currency.
COVID-19 is the biggest question for the next 6 months. However, if you look at the 10 year timeframe, infaltion vs defaltion is the big question.
Inflation is the obvious 1st choice given the FED’s actions, especailyl when you factor in that when they tried to reduce their holidng **10 yeasr into an econmic expansion with record low unemployemnet***, the market tanked (2018) and the FED reversed course. It seems onyl a Volker-like figure would be able to erverse the FED’s actions.
However, as I’ve mentioend for years, the FED’s actions (as well as COngress’s) have been tailored to funding the investors class when the problem is dropping consumption. On a realted note, the velocity of money has been falling for years, and is a strong force towarsd defaltion: it doesn’t amtter if there is more moeny availabel if it isn’t actually being spent.
the deflation story ends with inflation though no? i think it all depends on your timeframe
deflation seems likely because nobody knows what is going to happen and my dad is now stuck at home mowing his own lawn, worried… about coronavirus… and about inflation.
but eventually we will go outside, the coronavirus will have gone away, and Credit Suisse, BBVA, along with the Central Banks of Poland and Mexico will all have to decide whether they want to keep buying dollars or whether they want to buy gold, or corporate bonds, or equities.
Russians and Venezuelans and Iranians will continue to see their currencies lose value and they will look for alternatives.
Some Venezuelans sold bolivars for dollars and others sold bolivars for bitcoin and others sold for gold. bitcoin was the deal to make, followed by gold, followed by dollars. keeping a stash of all three is better than anyone of them alone, that says a lot.
in the collapse of a fiat monetary system, the strongest fiat currency will probably grow stronger.
We have had nonstop inflation for 49 years. Housing/stocks/bonds/gold/health insurance/ college tuition. CPI is nonsense.
The Fed is designed to inflate asset prices for the wealthy. Its in their best interests to say that inflation is nil.
You missed one:
US Industrial Production Crashes By Most Since End Of World War II: -5.5% YoY
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-industrial-production-crashes-most-1946
Old news.
GS way off it’s low seems to think so.
Old news, most defintely. However, I think the market has been ahead of itself in prcing in a recovery and this is a reminder of just how deep this cycle will be.
ALso, keep in mond where we were March 1: most of the country was still near full production, stay-at-home for CA was March 19; for NY, it was March 22; for SC, April 7.
Not all states are the same though. The bulk of the ex-Confederacy/Trashcanistan is of little economic importance.
They’re half the economy.
… and not only that but South of The Border attraction provides huge tourist revenue. I would argue Fort Pedro and the Reptile Lagoon draws just as many tourists as the Statue of Liberty in NYC.
Viva Pedro.
It appears we differ on what “the bulk” means.
Tech not too bad considering it’s recent run.
Rigth, which brings about another big question:
How immune is big tech to COVID-19?
For some like AMZN, the assumption is that it is a plus. No doubt Revenue will grow strongly, but how much will that affect net income? Are peoepl buying groceries, or high-margin goods as well? Have sales simply shifted from bricks to online, or have they been reduced? Then of course: will investors even notice or care?
How much has digital ad revenue and cloud computing revenue been affected?
FB, GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN: big companies with big questions.
Those were likely the lows of the day.
I went long some RTY sub-1180 so I could be biased.