iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,200 Blog Posts

NO MORE PREDICTIONS — JUST TRADE

I give up trying to predict the market. The Fed is throwing everything at markets now and there is a global coordinated effort to CRUSH the status quo and toss economies at scale into the sewers. The net result is people are spending more time at home with their families. God willing you have some money squirrel away, otherwise this is a very arduous and stomach churning process. To those people I am deeply empathetic.

For us traders, this is literally a best case environ for markets. This morning I ripped out a +10% trade on FAZ, reversed it and went 2x long SOXL and just sold that for 10%. I own a little gold and also this LOGM, which hasn’t run alongside ZM — for reasons that escape me.

Markets were down almost a thousand earlier and I was -10% on SOXL, very close to selling. The reason why I held is because Tepper came on teevee and starting to calm fuckers down and then I figured we might get a post European close bump, which is typical these days. I was right, so I booked it. Although markets look good, no one knows really — so why guess?

Banks are still fucked and down sharply and the news flow is ruinous. I hope you’ve been able to carve out some gains in this tape. If not, and this goes without saying, come join us in Exodus for some fish.

In other news, founder of Barstools sports is literally gambling away $3m of his own money in stocks, now that sports is banned. It’s hilarious to see how smart people can be so stupid when it comes to money.

His “portfolio”, trading a $3m account with DELAYED quotes.

His livestream.

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27 comments

  1. mad marsupial

    Give up?

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  2. purdy

    WORK may want to squirt throug MAs here.

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  3. the_wolf

    this time its different,…….. devil told me so

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  4. bambam

    How does somebody who appears to be that stupid have so much money? I don’t understand the context of this person.

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  5. purdy

    How you doing Wolfdaddy?

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    • wolfdaddy

      Low fever now. Few like shit. I’m not high risk so I can’t get tested

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      • purdy

        Glad the fever’s down. I’m guessing one of my sons and his girlfriend had it – they too couldn’t get tested. Told him to be in queue for eventual antibody test (when available) to confirm that that is what it was.

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  6. wolfdaddy

    Thanks for asking

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  7. jbandy

    Best trade? Short the VXX. The beauty is it doesn’t require that you be right about the market’s direction, just that volatility with dissipate from these very elevated levels over the next few months.

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    • numbersgame

      VIX is a bucking bronco.

      I agree with the genral direction, but bought a long VIX put spread instead. One note of caution: the market went from pricing as late as mid-February to pricing in a major depression this year – which is still within the realm of probability. I’d advise exitign the VIX position after congress passes wahtever giant bill they’re going to pass. “next few months” is letting all your chips ride on Black.

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  8. narcist

    Yeah, where are the right-wing morons in this channel who kept telling people to buy this market since their Fuhrer said Dow 28000 was a bargain a month ago? Still doesn’t look all that buyable after we done fell 10000 points.

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    • numbersgame

      Definitely buyable, if you pick your stocks. I’m betting (literally) that we end the week higher. There are several stocks that didn’t make new lows Friday or today, so that’s where you want to start.

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      • narcist

        Check out TDOC. That fucker kept surging. I was in on it for my IRA account per doctor bud’s advice when COVID didn’t even get its name yet.

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      • narcist

        Also, not sure why WDFC (literally that WD-40) has been catching bids (a recession play)? It’s one of the stronger stocks that have been overlooked.

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        • numbersgame

          Maybe Americans are going to fianlly start *fixing* things again now that they can’t buy new stuff from China?

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          • narcist

            Was thinking about whatever govt contracts they may be able to snatch up but I assume the longs know the reasons.

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  9. flea

    Usual 3:30 ramp underway …

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  10. numbersgame

    I also want to give props to Tradercaddy and a few other guys for spotting crude recently (even the guy i mocked on the 18th).

    I’m not sure if we’ll have a recession (and oil could still go down more), but
    1) odds favor a Bullish surprise (Russia or Saudi reduce the taps or make a deal with the US) more than a Bearish one, and
    2) all the FED and Congress/Treasury helicoptor money favor higher oil in the long run as well.

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  11. awanka

    Today looked pretty bullish. -3% is the new flat. I suspect that will change when the numbers from Corona virus testing ramp up in the US, but I’m seeing some light at the end here.

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    • narcist

      Sounds about right. Been paying attention to the rate of change of the European deaths since we’re at least a week behind their stats.

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  12. edge

    The wild card is shutdowns.
    7 trades. 5 losers, two winners. Losses very minor.
    Picked up a few calls. What a wild tape.
    Tomorrow I’ll loosen my stops. All but two of these trades would have worked. A common problem for me the last week or so.
    Getting the direction right isn’t too hard but the chop is horrible.

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  13. numbersgame

    So XLF traded like shit, which is a bad sign. The FED is truly out of ammo, because you can’t go higher thatn”infinite” purchases. So is liquidity the problem or not? I guess we’ll find out.

    Another bullish sign is that the assholes on Wall Street are palying the same old “predict the past” game. If they are this bearish, then they are proabbly looking for stocks to buy shepa.

    Assholes.

    “-50% GDP” should be sufficient to scare the shit out of weak hands that lasted through -3000 DOW. Of course -50% *quarterly* GDP means -11% Q2Q, which seemees pretty reasonable. Q3 is the real question, as well as Q4 (whihc will defeintely NOT be -50% Y2Y)

    Assholes.

    Anyone wonder what my motivations in posting in?
    Those assholes on Wall Street and in the halls of Congress looking to hand the little guy $1, while taking $5 out of their back pocket, as well as those that refeuse to take pain now and instead want to pass it on the younger generations.

    BTW, if this is truly a liquidity crisis, that mean that post-COVID19, the FED should be able to easily reverse their purchases. Who thinks that is goign to happen smoothly (or at all)?.

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    • numbersgame

      To be clear: “those that refuse to take the pian now,” I DO mean older generatiosn of voters (yes, a LOT of baby boomers), but I don’t consider them assholes, just ignorant, selfish, and/or irresponsible.

      I also understand this isn’t a trait unique to any one generation, as demonstarted by #CoronaParty

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