Europe was up 8%, now only 3%. There is a little less than an hour left to trade there and I suspect markets will fade. We are seeing MASSIVE selling in areas of the economy most affected by the economic collapse caused by coronavirus. Cruise ships, casual dining, entertainment cannot catch a bid. I do think, however, casual dining is a solid long term buy down here. Stocks like DIN and CMG off their highs like this is just madness.
I had SOXL overnight and sold it for an 11.7% profit. I am 80% cash and only long tankers now, who are enjoying $300k day rates for shipping crude. In the space, I own DHT, FRO, and EURN.
I am concerned about the fade in oil and the way treasuries are trading — whip sawing around too much. I do not trust Congress to pass a fiscal stimulus bill this weekend and will not be holding anything risky over the weekend.
Empirically, VIX above $70 is a SHORT. However, the fact that it won’t go down suggest people are still buying puts. Also, we are seeing sharp declines in short dated treasury yields, a typical safe haven for money managers.
I like the market to fade here until 12pm, ramp until 3pm and then taper off again. We might resume the plunge on Monday.
BUYERS BEWARE.
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No way that Pelosi easily hands Trump the big bailout and stimulus package that the market needs. At least not until there is more pain and she is forced to. She hates his fucking guts and would be negligent in her duties to the Democratic party were she to hand him any sort of “victory” that he could tout on the campaign trail. The dynamics are VERY different then they’ve ever been between a sitting president and opposition-controlled congress. In short, no way in hell do we get the type of bailout and stimulus package over THIS WEEKEND that is needed to mount a sustainable rally. I would not be caught dead long into the weekend.
3pm news conference notes:
– The spread of the Chinese virus is puny compared to what would have happened if I had not take the bold action, which was criticized by cryin Chuck and shakey Nancy, of restricting travel from China.
– I also took the bold, unprecedented action, big schlonged action of shutting down travel from Europe.
– Tests for this little flu are beautiful and anyone can get them for free.
– Treatment for this Chinese flu are free.
A “perfect” read-out of the press conference. Thank you. No need for me to watch it now.
Trump should have had the conference at 4pm, so there isn’t time tio fade the bounce…
Trump has only two hours or so to hit the tanning bed before the big speech. My god it will be both frightening and entertaining at the same time.
He can’t possibly bungle this up two times in a row, can he?
Jesus, somebody needs to teach him how to read.
Had to shut it off. Has no idea whatsoever about what he’s reading. He likely has the virus but will refuse testing. Dems will feast on this Admin’s molasses response to the bat souped crisis. Should make for an interesting race thankfully.