Good morning ladies and gentlemen,
No more chin-wagging or contemplating how this all works out to your benefit. Stocks are going to get fucking shipwrecked today and there is nothing policy makers can do, aside from SHUTTING IT ALL DOWN and suspending trade. Later on today the ECB will announce “liquidity measures”, but what use can they serve when business is down 80%?
Where do I get such a number?
CHINESE AUTO SALES FELL 79.1% IN FEBRUARY.
Since everything is being shut down, my question to you is this:
How long can companies survive holding overhead and business down 50%+?
HOW FUCKING LONG?
We are talking instant bankruptcies here, across the board. Significant draw downs in lines of credit, totally fucking banks to the point of ruin. The banks, if you will, are on the hook for $2.5 TRILLION in LOCs, most owned by JPM, C, WFC and BAC. It will look like a massive run on banks, all happening so fast, no one will know what hit them.
LOC’s flying out of the door, banks forced to recapitalize.
This is the gloom and doom scenario. Let’s play devil’s advocate and say they manage to instill some confidence in markets. How might that look like? Perhaps a government or Fed lending program of massive scale to take the place of the LOCs? I don’t know. But as of right now the only stocks that are working are mini plague stocks. You remember, the stocks you mocked me for last month.
HAHAHAH — go fuck yourself.
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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffett-on-the-one-two-punch-market-panic-it-took-me-89-years-to-experience-something-like-this-2020-03-11
Buffett told you so about Trump’s “address” and gave you plenty of time to short Trump.
All the non-Fox News watching traders, myself included, got the memo.
Today will be a very lovely day. Indeud.
Bring out the penis guillotine mine is ready. Turns out my move to Bitcoin just cost me my cock and balls
The week I decide to “figure out” crypto and I get my testicles lopped off.
hodl on.
Holding a bag of shitcoin where my nuts used to hang.
I got destroyed as I was short absolutely nothing. Glad I had not levered anything.
Well done FCEN or whoever.
Cryptos rocket 10 days each year. If you are out those days; you make nothing.
Will reposition to some alts, still betting crypto’s bounce before stocks ever will.
No sellers left? I guess we will see.
This was a coordinated effort to bring down Trump.
Perhaps. Certainly looks that way.
Are his supporters abandoning him though?
I’m pretty sure it’s going to cost Trump some support.
He didn’t look very confident last night. Knows he’s in a lot of trouble.
https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/11/hot-mic-donald-trump-ink-on-my-shirt/
Trump proved that he could do that on his own without any coordinated effort.
LOL … the delusion is grand.
You still haven’t figured out he’s fucking poison?
HE’S A RUSSIAN PLANT, MEANT TO DESTROY USA.
So, I was mildly curious about that Exodus thingy until it turns out everything in the world is oversold except cash….
Been talking to a friend of mine in China and he is telling me that small and medium sized businesses are forming a line to file bankruptcy. I don’t know if the big players and public companies are there yet but he is saying that the small guys have been completely month to month for years and they are already sunk.
Baby boomers don’t give a sh!t about the debt because they know they aren’t the ones paying it
GenZ doesn’t care about spreading COVID-19 becuase they know they aren’t the ones dieing from it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-i-die-i-die-students-risk-it-all-dream-trips-colleges-close-across-america
Meanwhile, the medical “experts” on Fox and the director of the CDC are all too happy to contine comapring this to the flu, SARS, and H1N1, as if the words “asymptomatic carrier” didn’t exist.
The 22 trillion deficit wouldn’t be such a big deal if it had been spent wisely. But it was used for blowing up a bubble.
Couldn’t agree more.
Stocks and aircraft carriers, instead of infrastructure and healthcare
The Crash of 2020.
Damn. Missed another big move. 100% cash but still pisses me off. I started watching the markets in the mid 70s. Started investing 1981, I think.
I have never seen moves like this before. I’m up about 9% over the last three weeks…just nuts.
So nuts that going short and holding overnight is where the money has been.
But take last night. Why would you want to be short when the president had every opportunity to stabilize the markets?
Then the idiot fucks it up worse than anyone thought possible.
We may never get out of the rabbit hole.
To be honest, I don’t thin kthat he “fucked up” the speech – it’s just that he had nothing good to say for the amrket.
What happened to the bailout for the rich? Is socialism really dead this time?
https://crooksandliars.com/2020/03/trump-caught-hot-mic-during-speech
When you start *the* address with “Oh Fuck” you know you fucked up.
Everyone with an iota of intelligence expected him to say some meaningless bullshit, and he did.
Trump won’t leave big money hanging.
I think he could have stabilized markets quite a bit if he would have offered a realistic plan for helping ordinary people.
Then again his credibility is pretty well trashed.
Why can’t I get quotes…oh, right, another full-trigger market collapse…
I like these 15-minute breaks. You can make some coffee, eat a bagel, take a shit, and still have time left to chit-chat.
Shit break over.
Also whiel conservatives – especailly in the White House and Fox News lead the “this is jsut a bad flu” meme, it is not just them.
NYC is lead by Democrats, but still has yet to cancel the St. Ptrick’s Day Parade in less than 1 week.
2 Million peopel standing shoulder-to shoudler? What could go worng?
There won’t be anyone there. Problem for DeBlasio is if he closes the schools, there’s no one to watch the kids. Parents work. Some will be home but most city workers can’t work from home. Provable schools can close because they have $$$
The problem is that there will be *some* people there.
Stoxx Europe 600 biggest one day drop ever if it holds.
I’m starting to put a toe in the water. We will see if I still have toes tomorrow.
Who is buying , got balls?
100% cash. Watching.
Bought some AAL
VIX 80 coming up?
Sold $FAZ at the open. This thing is like crack cocaine. feels dirty…
If 50% of Americans get the virus and 1% die that’s 1.6 million american deaths – is that what we’re pricing in?
Directory of CIDRAP, Michael Osterholm, a few weeks ago said 20-30 times that of a “flue season”. A couple days ago he was on Joe Rogan podcast and said 10-15 times a “severe flue season”.
A severe season kills ~60k. So yeah, not crazy to think we are looking at a million.
I am. lightly. but The cash rich are a good start.
There are names I’m buyign at this point, but still short overall. Example: waht’s the deal with TSLA?
1) they ripped of Chinese custoerms by installign downgraded chips
2) they are going to lose a lot of custoemrs because of the (less) wealth effect
3) low oil prices make electric cars less competative vs gas
4) funds proabbyl want to hold it for now so that they can show it in their portfolio, but will probabbly sell it at the EoQ adn rotate into cheaper names
5) Elon Musk is a dick (“Coronavirus panic is dumb”)
Best TSLA analysis I’ve read.
Also,
6) The Cyber trucks has a futuristic look. Very similar to that Delorean I saw in a new movie about time travel.
BTTF remake with a cybertruck would be epic.
Yeah, but the thing would probably auto-shutdown in 1957(?) becuase it couldn’t get a GPS satellite lock or find any cell phone towers.
Also, who woudl buy a half-assed armored vehicle? It will have most of the weight of an armored truck, but not the ballistic certifications.