The tell was in the bonds. The 10yr down a staggering 6bps to 1.06%. Smart money seeking refuge. Lots of new coronavirus headlines means down we go.
Over in Italy, the FTSE MID is off another 3%+, adding on top of their -5.5% on Friday.
Virus stocks are running like a son of a bitch. I am long just one now, BIOC aka The Bio Cock.
Fluid morning. I would not be surprised to see +1,000 or down 1,000. Sometimes the Fed gets in pre-markets. Time will tell.
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My mom left for work early today so I can stay home and be in exodus to trade. I’m excited to be there
Some statistics to put things into perspective
So far this year:
2,181,270 Communicable disease deaths
1,379,987 Deaths caused by cancer
1,277,177 Deaths of children under 5
839,969 Deaths caused by smoking
420,249 Deaths caused by alcohol
282,462 Deaths caused by HIV/AIDS
180,183 Suicides
164,814 Deaths caused by malaria
81,626 Seasonal flu deaths
51,935 Deaths of mothers during birth
44,022 Coronavirus existing infections
3,069 Coronavirus deaths
45,175 Coronavirus recoveries
Yes, but don’t forget:
COVID-19 is 0.2 years old
AIDs is 50 years old
the flu is several 1000s years old
More importantly, “the flu” is not single virus, but a family. For example, the H1N1 swine flu wasn’t discovered until April 2009, so by March it had 0 official infections. Fast forward to several million a few months later.
Futures are in the same range they were since Thursday night. They are testign the top of that box now.
Ok and what is H1N1 today?
Let me simplify: while the death toll for COVID-19 may stay under 10,000, it wouldn’t be extraordianry to reach 1M based on the infection rate and death rate. Either number would have very little impact 5 years form now. However, the short-term impacts – specifically the panic a hgih death rate woudl induce – are quite different.
There is still a lot of random chance, but what was priced in was 0% probability of long-term economic disruption. Even now, we are break-even for the year despite what we know: the words “asymptomatic carrier + no vaccine” still don’t mean much to most investors. Neither does this:
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/global-manufacturing-pmi-crashes-weakest-2009
Judging from TSLA, buy the dip is still resilient. China’s stock market has also basically ignored it, even though the evidence says that factories have been shut-down for 2 months. The moment Chinese gov’t support ends, their market will fall again.
It is becoming evident that the US is trying to play down their numbers by simply not testing for COVID-19, assumming the infections and deaths can be wrpped up into the flu numbers. We’ll see how long that lasts.
Also, waht does “cured” mean?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/cdc-accidentally-releases-diamond-princess-evacuee-who-tested-positive-virus
Other than futures I am also watching the frank today. CHF has been unusually strong as a safe haven as of late. If the money comes out of CHF and bonds I am more likely to trust the market.
JPY has also erased that crazy spike from 2 weeks back
10yrs have made 3 higher lows, so maybe the downtrend is reversing.
Sobering interview
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-coronavirus-isnt-going-away/id1460055316?i=1000466938203
Neutron Jack passes.
He will not be missed.