Be afraid. Soon the virus will be here and markets will seize up because commerce will grind to a halt. The market is only now understanding the gravity of the situation and that is now being reflected in share prices. But we’re just getting started.
Congrats, we’re now at Jan 2020 levels. December 2019 levels takes the NasCRACK down to 200, or 8% lower from here. That’s my short term target.
Today, trying to be clever, I made a variety of moves. Here are the results.
SOXS +2.6%
(SIG -4.6%)
(CCC -6%)
APT +48%
APT +28%
(TNA -5.5%)
(SPCE -6.2%)
The TNA and SPCE trades were poor attempts at me trying to catch a bounce. What I should’ve done is stand firm with my overnight SOXS position. Nevertheless, I did catch a day trade in APT for +28% and 48% from shares I bought a day or so ago. Who remembers these things anymore? The one constant in all of this is cash. I have lots of it — now about 40%.
In short, we dive into the close and dive again tomorrow, amidst the sorrow and the angst. The virus is coming and so are the margin clerks.
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There will be a bounce tomorrow. trump most likesly stalking Powell now. Talking heads will intervene somehow today or tomorrow morning.
My LVS puts doubled today. Who the fuck would go to Vegas now?!
The CEO of the largest bank of the planet is *literally* having nightmares about COVID-19.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/investing/jamie-dimon-coronavirus-comment/index.html
Of course, that must mean that he thinks the whole thing is overblown.
Exodus is oversold, right? Buy the dip?
Just asking because the next support for the S&P is 100 points down ~3025. We either test that tomorrow, or more likely, go up 2% or so and test it later.
I harvested QID: +16%. I may need to hire some farmhands.
Also, ROKU up 1% since my post just 40 minutes ago, so my *perfect* streek on that looks good to continues (we’ll see tomorrow).
It feels good to be SO RIGHT, motherfuckers…
watching North America enter panic mode will not be a pretty sight. and no, sorry about there being no solutions via the Fed.
There’s no fiscal solution to the virus problem. But, if the FED can buy bonds at $60-80 Billion per month, they can buy equities as well and float the market till a vaccine materializes. You don’t think they are freaking out right now?
Why would the FED freak out? The Banks own Tresuries that have been increasing in value, while the Gov’ts borrowing costs have been falling, and Wall Street has been selling Call Options to retail investors for several weeks.
What would freak the FED out is if workers were actually paid more (wage growth) and caused food/energy inflation. They don’t care about retail investing losses until it effects Demand for goods and Services (ie, corporate profits). Income can alwasy be replaced by consumer debt in the system we are in.
Here where investors are at: about the same place they were Jan 1. It would be crazy if the FED bought stocks, -except that is what the BoJ and ECB have already done (althoguh it is still crazy).
Honestly, the fear of the COVID-19 will be worse thatn the human actaul effects when you comapre it to the flu. Justa take a look at China: peopel are refusing to go back to work. Either China is lying (highly possible), or people’s fears (of the sickness) are overblown.
How many will die from COVID-19? 1 million? How many die from the flu? Malaria? Car accidents? Malnourishment? Floods? Hurricanes?
I gather that the greatest risk arises when the health care system becomes saturated. With modern intensive care treatment available, the death rate of infected persons may be a percent or less. Otherwise the much higher death rate without treatment becomes the concern.
Without sufficient health care resources COVID-19 could potentially decimate an infected population in the classical sense, that is kill every tenth person.
Look at the 1918 influenza pandemic for historical perspective.
Were overcrowded hospitals a factor in the unusual rate of death?