Rates are collapsing, presently at 1.55% — a real harbinger of doom.
Gold is soaring.
Oil and copper #COLLAPSE.
An infectious disease is rampaging throughout Asia, forcing businesses to close the fuck down — people are sloppily falling in the streets iced cold dead. The inner doom in me wants to short things and preside over the apocalypse, but my brain keeps getting in the way. The virus stocks are emotional trading tools, not serious. The only real money to be made here is effectively timing the bottom in stocks like LK. Problem is, no one knows when this virus will ebb. We have a runaway train off the tracks and trading around it is dangerous.
As such, in my trading account, I am 100% cash now. I might purchase a few things later, or maybe even short sell something. But for now, I really don’t have a fucking clue what happens next.
All I see are bad headlines. When I see that, I am pre-programmed through years of dealing with crisis, to buy said dips. That is the play, believe me. I just haven’t figured out when things might start getting back to normal again.
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Buy the dip? Reality check: SPY is down a whopping 2% from ATH.
Because the Chinese are notorious liars only concerned about CYA, you have to wait to see how the virus spreads outside China to really understand its effects.
If seemingly healthy individuals – that pass current screenign methods – are infecting others at international airports, containment is impossible. However, it is still unclear just *how* contagious asymptomatic carriers are.
We do know that 1 asymptomatic women infected 4 other people in udner 24 hours.
We also know that some people can stay asymptomatic and never even get sick:. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-29/10-year-old-boy-raises-fears-wuhan-virus-could-spread-undetected
I was buying stocks when others were panicing in Dec 2018. However, now there is panic, but not in the US stock market, where unbridled optimism still rules.
WHO declares a global pandemic. Virus stocks spike… but so does the borader market. I guess China isn’t really important.
TSLA also up huge. Maybe the 3s they sell in China have an EMF shiedl to protect peopel from viruses.
Maybe you’ll cling onto anything that supports your bear thesis.
More accurately, bulls will cling to anyting to support their thesis – and there are many more bulls than bears.
Fact 1: it was unclear whetehr WHO woudl declare a an international Public Health Emergency at the beginning of the day
Fact 2: They DID decalre that
From what I gathered, the fact that they praised China’s response was the big positive. However, if they think China is doign well and will contain it, then why did they declare an Emergency today?
Their very action says that things turend out worse than they thought it would on Jan 23 If they do think China is doing a good job, then that means they think the rest of the world is gettign worse. It’s best (in terms of the public’s health interests) to either declare an Emergency as soosn as posible or not at all.
As a reminder, the market can remain irrational, but viruses don’t give sh!t and move even faster. Hold on to your TLT
Shut your piehole numbersgame. You’re a dreadful bore.
Why don’t you complain to your mom?
Never mind, I’ll just tell her myself.
I haven’t listened to this – too busy now.
But this guy is in Hong Kong
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5y1NC0y2zmk
He’s good w crypto but no expert on run of the mill viruses.
*ITALY CRUISE SHIP PATIENT TESTS NEGATIVE TO VIRUS: OFFICIAL
Damn good question, one I am pondering as well. Beyond the plague itself, the steps being taken to prevent its spread are unprecedented. That fact may well be the best information currently available. Buying puts tomorrow, should have bought them today.