I will resist with every fiber of my existence reporting on political or geopolitical events. It’s toxic and not helpful when trying to see the market clearly. However, early this morning there were multiple rockets fired at US forces in Iraq. This of course begs the question: “what in the fuck happens next, should Iran decide to go all in again America in the region?”
Iran has the population of Germany and we can’t just roll our tanks into their mountainous regions. It would be, more or less, a gigantic quagmire and clusterfuck. In the off-chance that this idiotic political structure in America decided to fight a total war there and institute a draft, which is unlikely, I will be kidnapping my sons and moving out of the country.
If this continues to escalate, markets will get rocked, initially. Oil will spike to more than $80 and oil stocks in the U.S. will soar. Once the war situation stabilizes to the point of indifference, stocks will rally again. The only way this truly up-ends markets is if we get overrun in Iraq and face humiliation. That would of course mean a massive escalation and the expense of such a war is something the country cannot afford, but will pay it nonetheless because they don’t really care.
My simple advice during this period is to be cash rich, hedged, and long some gold. The market was looking for a reason to trade lower after a historic rise. This is probably good enough to start a nice old fashioned rout.
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And there were, and there remain, decent technical reasons to be long gold here.
One option for the Iranians is to hit Saudi oil and not attack us directly. We’ve already established that we won’t necessarily respond to an attack that we claim came at Iran’s behest if they hit Saudi via Yemen. This would hurt us but not have the emotional impact needed to gin us up for war that a direct attack that killed Americans would have. The major danger, though, may be that those who absolutely want us to kill Iranian leaders and destroy their nuclear program will stage a false flag to get things going.
Anyway, Trump behaves like it is Sheldon and Bibi (not Putin) who have the pee tapes. This should worry us all.
S&P 500 looks parabolic on the weekly chart. Inflation is ticking up slowly, earnings are fine, shares are ticking up quite a bit. Overpriced share prices now.
To me, Trump is sweeping the floor before the election. Dropped the Mother bomb at the beginning of the term and now knocked off a key adversary near election time.
In the off-chance that this idiotic political structure in America decided to fight a total war there and institute a draft, which is unlikely, I will be kidnapping my sons and moving out of the country.
BINGO!
Love how some are making the leap from the US executing a terrorist to a full blown war with a draft. In addition, the US military is unbeatable without a draft. The hysteria is laughable. Buy all dips
The US executed the terrorist leader of ISIS in October. No issue there.
This time Trump assassinated a government official of a country without declaring war on that country. Beyond fucking stupid.
People who support him are fucking morons.
People who voted him in (looking at you Fly) deserve to be pissed on.
Want my address? Would love to discuss your position of pissing on my friends and I in person.
I can’t see your icon clearly. Looks like Jesus, which is ironic for someone calling themselves “moneybagz” and making veiled threats of violence in response to an insult from an anonymous stranger.
So I guess I’m not sure if you an Christian who has no idea who Jesus is, or a non-Christian who decided to mock Jesus on purpose.
Either way, doesn’t really look like you have the moral high ground. If you don’t like Freedom of Speech in the US, move the fuck out of my country.
I was worried with my short /ES position going into the weekend. Now not so much. Off to make me a Martini!
Cap’n Fly, you surprise me. Why would we need to send in ground troops and invade Iran? Has anyone advocated for land invasion OR a draft?? Could not all and any US strategic objectives to destroy Iranian infrastructure and military capability be done from the air with an absolute minimum loss to US forces???
All the libtards, Israel/Jew haters, Trump haters and America haters are in a tizzy like it’s ‘the end of the world’. The lefftist run media is practically begging Iran to strike and pointing out to them where and how. Here’s the REALITY:of the match up:
Iran vs USA: (fill in the blanks)
Aircraft carriers ___vs____
Nuclear armed ICBMs ___ vs ___
Advanced aircraft/Air Force ___vs___
Nuclear weapons ___ vs ___
Suleimani was a monster, with the blood of thousands (including many Americans, some of whom were killed just last week) on his hands. You don’t fight terror by cowering in a corner or submitting as the left and the traitors preach, you fight terror by CONFRONTING it, and the Iranian government is the worldwide sponsor of Radical Islamic terrorism.
Pirate is not alone folks. We should thank him for reminding us of just how clueless he, and so many other Americans, remain. Propaganda works.
Boy didn’t take long for you to come out of the woodwork did it? If you hate the USA, you can always leave. By the way when you say ‘pee tapes’ are you referring to the disgraceful Fusion GPS dossier that has been shredded for lacking any truth? Which made absurd allegations about the President and was used to then be used to plant spies in the Trump campaign by your hero Hussein Obama? I know you loved Barry, too bad he’s not in the WH now, so he could have sent Suliemani ANOTHER $2,000,000,000 in US taxpayer cash on wooden pallets to Tehran huh? The USA now has a REAL President, maybe you need to get over losing the last election already?
You see Ferd, I am giving FACTS, while you, like all leftists, revert to insults and name calling. There are no ‘pee tapes’ of the President. The Russia Collusion hoax was not only a 2 year lie that Mueller did NOT confirm, but in fact there was a spygate from Obama’s administration where a CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT WAS SPIED ON (something that should really scare every American).
In fact everything the left accuses Trump of, THEY are guilty of. How many drone strikes did Barry Soetoro send? How many dirty deals with dictators? What about his ACTUAL action (remember the ‘hot mic’ incident when he told the Russian Prez he’d have ‘more flexibility AFTER the elections?) What about Lois Lerner and the IRS scandal? Fast and Furious guns to Mexico? Loretta Lynch and her tarmack meeting with Hillary? -and it goes ON AND ON. The left has allegations against the President, the right has facts. By the way, President Trump speaks in a funny, off the cuff way that is easy to misunderstand, but all those who think he’s just some dummy have COMPLETELY missed the boat.. He is sending a message to the bullies in Tehran not to mess with the US – NOT pallets of cash.
What a dumbass.
“Could not all and any US strategic objectives to destroy Iranian infrastructure and military capability be done from the air with an absolute minimum loss to US forces???”
This is most certainly true – just like in Iraq. How did that turn out?
You fight terror with a PLAN, not just bullets. (a)lpha males always make emotional decisions instead of thinking things through. Do you have any idea how terrorists are **created**?
Most military generals think war with Iran is a bad idea, but right-wing conservative draft-dodgers like Trump know that it is a good way to drum up support from people like you.
May 22nd 2013: “On Wednesday, the Obama administration publicly acknowledged for the first time that four Americans were killed in drone strikes since 2009 as part of U.S. counterterrorism activities surrounding al Qaeda.”
One of the targets was a 16 year old high school student from Colorado. But that’s Ok right?
And that was something that actually happened. Silence though, exposing hypocrites. We have been through three years of media and a political party just making up stuff in order to try to find something that sticks, to remove someone they lost to, at any cost. Spinning all the way, trying to build anything “new”, up into frenzy. This actually isn’t even close to the first time rockets have been fired on us forces in Iraq, in the last year, at all. 52d chess
The American people have zero interest, 78 percent, in fighting a war with Iran. The “government “ would need to sell us a really big lie in order to fool us again.
Regards
Chuck Bennett
The average American is too fat and lazy to fight in a war; couldn’t find Iran or Iraq on the map; think Hawaii is another country; couldn’t come up with $400 in an emergency and have no intention of dying in some godforsaken desert halfway across the world.
No senator’s son’s will be enlisting. Anyone with any sense will Cassius Clay their kids up to Canada or the Bahamas for any war.
The generals and you yahoos are always fighting the previous war. Before WW2 they prepared for trench warfare and thought horses would be important. (fyi millions of horses were killed in battle in WW1.)
Those billion $ aircraft carriers will be giant tombs. Don’t let your kid anywhere near one of those. All the fancy multimillion dollar boondoggle gadgets will fail in a real battle. Several years ago the Chinese used a pulse weapon against a US ship – fried all the electronics. They had to tow that dark hulk back to port from halfway around the world.
US infrastructure is a sitting duck for pissed off hackers from many countries around the world, who will pile on when the time is right. Our highway system is amazing compared to the power grid. The troops will not be able to call home. Their parents will be shivering, hungry in the dark with their dead cell phones in hand. the power grid makes our road.
The war won’t be fought with bombs – cyber war – decimated anonymously from afar.
Hope you stocked up on some Lockheed calls.
+1. Nicely written. I wonder if dumb americans know Cassius Clay.
I’m glad that you got that off of your chest, it must have been a burden for many years.
America is the root of all terror. America has invaded sixty countries since world war 2.
In 1953 America overthrow Iran’s democratic government Mohammad Mosaddegh and installed a brutal dictator Shah. America helped Shah of Iran to establish secret police and killed thousands of Iranian people.
When in America black people were not allowed to vote and white ku klux klan used to lynching black people all the time. Black people are still treated worse than pigs here.
During Iran-Iraq war evil America supported Suddam Hossain and killed millions of Iranian people. In 1989, America, is the only country ever, shot down Iran’s civilian air plane, killing 290 people.
In 2003,America invaded Iraq and killed 1,000,000+ innocent Iraqi people and 4,000,000+ Iraqi people were displaced.
We are being targeted by Iran? This is another “yellow cake” fabricated story. I’ve heard it before and it is all made up now. However, given that Americans are more concerned with who is on American Idol, they will probably swallow this tale just like they did the last one.
John smith ,
When Black Americans couldn’t vote the KKK did what? I saw the same movie, I feel you.
The Americans with the guns (real power comes from the barrel of the gun ) don’t give a shit about America idol. People who think we are going to buy what their selling this time are underestimating the people again.
Maybe the same fucks who hooked poor Johnsmith with that sad movie about the Blacks will create another masterpiece to convince us to purchase that war ticket? But I don’t think so
Regards
Chuck Bennett
Fly spent a year trying to get people to vote for Trump. He even bragged about it. And while I 100% don’t want war, wow what utter irony it would be if you had to leave the country for fear of a draft. I thought Hillary was gonna start the war?
This is why my support remains committed to Brother Bernard Sanders, the only true anti-war candidate. At least if they kick us out of Iraq one good thing might come from this epic clusterfuck.
Maybe he can help pay of your loans you fucking loser
Is wolf daddy a gay sex thing?
From my perspective here’s what this looks like: Trump tweeted years ago that Obama was gonna start a war with Iran to get reelected and that it would be illegal to strike Iran without congressional approval. This now appears to be more Trump projection. And seeing how Trump lies about everything big or small, I doubt there will be any evidence presented that shows his attack was performed to stop some imminent threat.
As we work down The Project for a New American Century (PNAC) list of countries to be destroyed, we have killed, displaced, and maimed millions of people; while at the same putting ourselves on the path to bankruptcy and making the country for whom the plan was written, Israel, less safe.
“We did this to stop a war” as we send over 3,000 troops, tell people to get the hell out of Iraq now, and target 52 Iranian sites. Jesus Christ
+46% in 2019
Looking for the same in 2020.
What are your major funds to invest in this year Sarge?
I plowed everything into tech with a pinch of gold. Vanguard is your friend. ($0 trades)
Some say the tech industry is overvalued but they will be the leaders of the decade once again. I want self driving cars, a cashless society and full automation when I order the kids food at McD’s. I no longer want to wait in lines for anything, ever. When I order from Amazon, Home Depot and Walmart I want it within an hour, dropped from a drone into my DeliveryChute, tumbling into my living room. And no more passwords and usernames.
Wait for the obligatory single digit pull back that Wall Street plans two-three times a year then go in 100%. Next X-Mas you’ll be filthy rich.