Happy New Year’s 2020 iBankCoin

I can’t believe the year is going to be 2020. I remember thinking about living in the 2020’s when I was a boy in the 80s. It felt like a lifetime away — and it was. And here we are, embarking on a new decade with lots of new adventures to come. I cannot control lots of things around me, but I am pretty good at controlling my investments and what they reap. All of my darkest hours in my investment life occurred when I risked to much, got too greedy, and tried to win big in a trade. It has taken me a long time to come to grips with the fact that gunning for a grand slam is not only a low probability trade — but also abjectly the moronic one too. Trust me when I tell you, you’ll be happier and richer while focusing on compounding returns over the next 30 years.

That being said, at some point the bull market will end and then you will need your wits about you. We’ll cross that bridge when we get there.

Plans for the evening entail Coque Qu Vain, but with a Turkey. I also made a brown sauce the past two days. The way you make a brown sauce is by first making stock — which I made by boiling the bones of a chicken, some herbs, a little tomato paste and a little white wine. Then yesterday I took a package of chicken wings and browned them with some onions and then ladled in the stock little by little. After it reduced by 90%, I poured it into a jar and kept repeating that process until I got a half jar’s worth of brown sauce. This is now a cooking blog.

With that brown sauce, I am going to punch you in the face with it. Any more questions?

See pal, that’s who I am and you’re nothing.

For the balance of the day, MORE ERRANDS. House Fly must not rest, even while domiciled in the lazy and sloppy south. Also, no BOOZE because I swore it off until summer. I literally bought a bottle of sparkling cider and will pop it like a champagne bottom come midnight.

We’re very ritualistic around New Year’s and I take this renewal period seriously. I am not the best person to offer life advice, especially since I am still managing through my own demons. But I can tell you that being the person you admire, the person you want to be, is a valid and honorable goal. Think of all the qualities in people that you admire and then aspire to be that person. It helps when trying to define yourself, which is an issue that most people grapple with their entire lives.

Thank you for reading through 2019. I have lightened up the blogging efforts the past year in exchange for more banter inside Exodus. During 2020, we will be launching Stocklabs (sign up for BETA trial), so look forward to that and possibly a new design for the main site — something we’ve left alone for about 5 years.

Cheers and be well and please do not drink and drive.

Best rap song of the decade, obviously.

You shiny faced fuckers don’t have the slighted clue of what is behind the bend. You cannot see it because it’s beyond your peripheral vision; but I can see it and it’s odious and disgusting and it’s going to cut your dicks off.

Lots of excess in this tape lads. Let’s be honest with one another right now. The SPY is +30% for the year because financial engineering, actual rigging of balance sheet. No one in their right God damned mind should wear a pair of CROX outside the house or beach. There is a heaving mess about to spill over and I suspect this latest gorilla run with cock in tow in biotech is the tip of the fucking ice’d berg.

The sickness will soon leave the quarantined camp and infect the populous, causing the casino to seize up and collapse. You will be grateful for my warnings, as the prophecy of my markets warnings bears delicious fruit.

I can honestly say I’ve been purposely ignorant on stocks that past 6 months or so, turning a blind eye to the ruins around me. But the time is now and the year is old, tired, and fat. In early 2020, I intend to slay the fat beast and devour its remains.

Other than that, I am having a joyous occasion and am delighted by the summer climes here in Cary, NC.

I am presently 40% cash, heavily positioned in 3x ETFs of ill repute.

It’s a legit question since the beginning of 2020 is bound to start with a bang. The true nature of a market is often disguised at the end of year and revealed for its monstrous visage in hiding during the first week of the New Year called “The January Effect.”

If forced to make a call, I’d say SHARPLY LOWER. But and this is a BIG BUT, should the 10yr yield get above 2.00%, there is a better than average chance markets will begin to worry about rising yields, which unravels everything.

Being 100% long might be a bit aggressive. Perhaps dial it back to 75% and enjoy the holidays. It’s 74 degrees here, some of the best weather I’ve ever enjoyed during winter. I have some more errands to run, but I’ll be back later.

Forward looking people don’t need to look back upon his mistakes and successes. That shit is for sentimental people who have time to waste praising themselves, or worse: feeling sorry about themselves.

Today I took the coyote to the dog park, whereupon she challenged a pitbull mix to a savage match of growing and pawing each others face off. Had the pitbull decided to kill my dog, it would’ve been sad and I probably would had had to take out my blade and kill the pitbull on the spot. Which leads me to my next question: aside from criminals, who in their right fucking mind brings a pitbull into the house? They are the dumbest fucking dogs on the planet, alpha predators, and are a menace to society. You might as well keep a pet tiger in your house too, if you think pitbulls could be domesticated.

Fuck off pit owners. I can sense you’re getting triggered reading this now.

So we have two days left of the year and it’s important to note tax loss selling is an actual thing. Expect losers to come under pressure the next two days. The forced selling might create some easy trades in 2020, so be ready for that.

NOT a fan of gold here.

Still a fan of biotech.

Mixed feelings on tech.

We’re overdue for a pullback and biotech is getting all the juice because of the black box theory. To rehash, people buy companies without revenues on the promise of something grande. The proverbial black box. It could be great, or catastrophe. But since it is pre-revenues, there isn’t a metric to suggest the stock of overpriced. Why, their new drug could be a fucking blockbuster — shattering the market to pieces. They could be then next Celgene. It’s the sort of shit we have to deal with in hot markets every so often, more now than ever before. This too will end and these stocks will get lit the fuck up — destroying a brand new cadre of millennial fagLORDS back into their Coinbase accounts.

BIG gains for 2019 — no complaints here. We’re all entering the 20s roaring already — the very best of times monetarily. Underneath the shiny veneer is of course depravity and a bottomless sadness that will have to be resolved at some point in the future. Look to Japan and China as canaries in that coal mine. For now, the good times are rolling. Position yourselves to profit and compound your returns, but never cease to forget this empire is built on a pyramid of lies.

I’ve been at the gym for 2hrs per day, every day, after taking a 9 mo sojourn away from personal fitness. By the time I was ready to move out of Princeton, I felt like death was knocking at my door. Although markets rose and I made money, I didn’t enjoy 2019 at all. As a matter of fact, at times, I felt fairly miserable about it — which of course is often reflected in my blogs. I don’t want to be cantankerous; but I just can’t help it. Ideally, I’d like to live without turmoil or conflict — going about my way without disruption.

I’ve found cooking to be a great escape, even more than reading and watching cinema. I’ve given up all booze until at least summer and it’s a good thing because I make it a rule to never imbibe whilst in a bad mood. Being that I’m often in a bad mood, perhaps it’s best I shelve the gimlets for a later date.

Solid progress is being reported for Exodus 2.0 and I’m happy about that. If what I want to the letter gets built, well then, I can honestly say that I created something beautiful.

On the matter of going back to the gym, I haven’t gained much weight, maybe 3 pounds the past year — but my strength has diminished. I used to bench 225lb and now I struggle with two plates. Muscle memory is starting to kick in and my nutrition is improving. The downside to my cooking escape has been ingesting all of those fucking calories.

For dinner tonight is roasted chicken, carrots, and a potatoes. I will likely only eat a few potatoes in order to minimize carb intake. I know there are a lot of people who walk the black dog and too many of those people do nothing and waste away. Trust me, it’s best to be active, even if it means forcing yourself into a routine.

Some of my goals for 2020.

Launch Exodus 2.0 god damn it
Re-design iBankCoin
Visit attractions down south
Get in top shape
Master the safety razor (Not quite there yet)
Show my daughter more movie classics
Communicate better
Take a long extended summer vacation
Help others

I think those are all attainable and healthy. Off to eat.

When I was a small boy and believed in Santa Claus, I loved the holiday. I’d go to bed early and wait for the big fat bastard to break into my apartment and bestow presents to me, placed neatly under my tree. I started to realize early that he had the same hand writing as my Mother. I was one of the last around my neighborhood to learn he was fake. Mortified in 4th grade by my teacher, she drolled on how Santa was fake and how ridiculous it was for parents to lie to their kids about the most generous man to have ever lived. I remember sitting there dumbfounded by the news, as all of the kids laughed with their missing tooth smiles and giggled at the notion of Santa Claus. When I went home that day, my Mother, who has always been combative, threw a fit and ended up walking me back to the school to fight with my teacher.

“How dare you tell my son Santa isn’t real!”

As a young adult, I was always a parent. I had my son when I was just 20, so I grew up fast and made sure he believed in Santa too. In my 20s, Xmas was great. We had two more kids and made sure all of them believed in the myth and we’d ham it up, telling stories about Santa and all the things he did for us when young. There was even the tale my Mother told me about being woken up in the middle of the night by my Grandfather, sharply pulling up the windows on Xmas eve — declaring “there is Santa — look — there he is!”

My Mother swore she saw Santa and his sleigh whirr through the winter sky.

Expenditures were manageable early on, since all they needed were a few toys and some whimsical items. As time elapsed and they got older, the burden of Xmas wore on me like watching a movie for the 40th time. I know the routine, but as my priorities in life changed — so did my opinion on this fucking holiday.

I’ve come around to the way of thinking that Scrooge was right all along. When I was younger, I believed Scrooge was the worst person who ever lived, up until the point he started throwing his money around and saving Tiny Tim. But now I think the miserly Scrooge, the industrious Scrooge, is something to admire.

Why go home early on Xmas even when there is work to be done?

Why pay your idiot workers more, when you can get said work for less?

Why is it Scrooge’s responsibility for ensuring the health of Tiny Tim?

That burden, inexorably, rests on the dusty shoulders of Tim’s idiot parents.

I reminisce of a time when the holidays filled my black heart with a bit of warmth. The ideal of Xmas season, Rudolph toiling hard with his red nose to ferry Santa into my house, was idyllic. Now I am plagued by routine that is wasteful and moribund. I’d much rather spend my time and money on travel or even charity, then spoil my kids even more with items they really don’t need.

Alas, it takes two to tango.

Lots of bullshit artists out there. “The Fly” is just an artist, painting on the faces of my enemies — who endlessly harangue me with messages of venom. I am happy to report my last 30 trades. It makes no difference when you grab a data sample from my trading. Could be now, last month, three months ago or what have you. The results will be the same. I am the SAAS of trading, repeatable business model that keeps churning out great trades.

This is what you call a 76% win rate, 23 for my last 30.

BIDU +6.3%
PD +4.8%
NOAH +6%
SQM +5.6%
DAN +4.1%
SWKS +3.8%
(BHC -6.9%)
(QURE -5.7%)
KRTX +3.7%
CRCM +15.9%
WYNN +4.88%
NFLX +3.24%
JWN +4.8%
ESPR +3.4%
PINS +4.5%
OAS +8.7%
JD +4.4%
(CYBR -7.5%)
(XON -7.2%)
(TUSK -10.9%)
(KRTX -5%)
(OLLI -3%)
OYST +8.1%
NXTC +11%
YNDX +1.4%
BG – wash
RCL +1.8%
AMCX +2.9%
ESPR +6.5%
CHNG +6%

Granted, the market is up for a dozen days in a row, but breadth has been weak — in the range of 50-65%. This is what you call outperformance.

Can you do this on your own?

Sure, if you have the genetic material to trade. If not, I advise you to eat fish. Eat the god damned fish you’ve been given and do what God intended for you to do. For some of you that might be trash hauling, others a chiropractic. If some of you are semi smart, you might be a dentist. My point is to stop trying to trade on your own if you’re not any good at it. If you’re good at it, you wouldn’t be seeking help. I could sit down with you for one thousand years (I am immortal) and teach you everything I know, but you’ll end up reverting back to your poor methods once left on your own.

EAT THE FISH YOU’VE BEEN GIVEN.

Common misconception.

I cannot buy XYX because ‘it’s too expensive’, so I’ll buy XYS and possibly find the next XYZ.

WRONG.

There is only one Apple, one Amazon and no one really benefited from their success. The myth and the dream of tailwind success off of another giant winner has been discredited a long time ago. Companies that are crushing it usually crush their suppliers too — because they apply leverage. If you like ROKU, buy ROKU, no matter the valuation.

Are you still employed? Do you earn money? Then buy a little ROKU now, a little later, and dollar cost average into the stock over a course of a year. The idea that you should have anything but the best stocks in your portfolios is foolish and a fast track way towards and into the poorhouse.

I sold a handful of stocks today, 1-3% gains and replaced them with another handful of stocks ripping at new highs. For 2020, I intend to start a ‘best ideas’ portfolio in Exodus again, something I eschewed in recent years but now feel the urge to express my artistic license again.

In short, buy the best stocks, irrespective of valuation, and tell your in laws to buy the second rate Barnes and Nobles of the world.

I had written out this really long blog post and then scrapped it after I realized I didn’t give a shit. Life comes at you fast and fuck the people you run over along the way. I’m a Master Ace Trader (M.A.T.) and couldn’t give two shits about the opinions of the working class.

This much I do know for certain.

I’ll never click-bait post again. Lower tier bloggers at other sites enjoy getting paid per ad. Fuck those people, good and hard.

There will be ZERO new bloggers added to this site, ever again. Fuck your needs and caprices. “The Fly” rides alone.

There will also be ZERO premium services launched from iBC away from the company. Fuck your friends and family. This is, however, a family friendly site.

Life is too short to care. I simply ride in a very fast car and run over the heads of my enemies and do not care about the tire marks left in someone’s brains.

“But Fly, what about the people?”

I am all about the people. I am a very charitable man and always side with the underdog. I have lots of deep seated issues to deal with down the road; but for now, I am a money making machine.

To that end, ZERO losses until 2020. With just a few days left, I suspect I will absolutely crush. My advice to you is simple and direct: do what I do, not what I say. Reason being, I am an expert and you’re not. If I was in a fire with a firefighter, I’d look to him to get me out of the flames. Same logic applies here.

In case you’re wondering, I got the German working around the clock on Exodus 2.0 aka Stocklabs. We just acquired the dot com domain and will launch it when it’s good and ready. Quit haranguing me about the launch date. I said, it will be launched when it’s good and god damned ready. God damn it.

As the decade comes to a close, I’ve been reflecting about my time at iBankCoin and how its been. At the beginning of the decade I had a successful advisory business and only did the blog and Exodus on the side for fun. Initially, I started iBC in 2007 to ‘compete’ against the fucktards at The Street dot com. Then the market collapsed and I was enamored with the small amount of popularity I had attained. It was me and a handful of other bloggers, including Ragin Cajun. Matt has been my most loyal employee at the site and has stuck by my side no matter what.

After we launched Exodus in 2009, then known as The PPT, I was delighted to learn I could make decent money doing what I loved to do — trade, talk to people about trading, writing. But instead of taking the money and scaling the site into something bigger, I invested it and kept it for myself. Although I am risk with my stocks, I am quite reserved in business and didn’t trust that I could scale the site with the little I knew about the internet. As the new decade rolled on, my aspirations for the site grew and I took on numerous personalities, men from all walks of life, both novices and professionals. I started to believe I could make iBC into something very big — just about catering to community and letting people express their thoughts on markets. I opened the site up to the public, giving them a platform to blog in what I called “The Peanut Gallery.” At its peak, we must’ve had 100+ bloggers — but I viewed it to be a waste of resources. I problem I’ve had with personalities on the site is their lack of patience. Everyone who came onboard wanted to get rich fast and didn’t want to earn their audience. I didn’t pay much — because the business model made no sense, especially with the low ad rates.

We later expanded through several popular voices on the site and launched new premium services. We must’ve launched 5 or 6 since we started. Two of them were grande successes — both netting 6 figs and doing well. Shortly after, we did an investors conference in Vegas and another at the Yale Club in NYC. Both, in my view, were commercial flops, but were memorable and will probably be something I look back upon as some of the best days on the site.

I used to host annual dinners at a different upscale NYC restaurant each year, inviting one non-member of the site as my guest. These dinners would typically conclude at a cigar lounge or Katz’s Deli, and were always fun. Somewhere around mid-decade, about the time I started to really hate