It’s over for you software nerds. The era of the cloud had ended, bringing forth a new era of gothic disobedience to technology and reintroduction of the horse and carriage.
NOW spiraled lower in the after hours, bringing pain to the entire sector. Bear in mind, this is an industry that was pistol hot for a decade, only interrupted 3 times with routs of 20% or more since 2013 — and now we’re on the verge of -30% in some key names the past 3 months.
In Exodus we have a predictive oscillator that measures the pain in this trade and we’re almost at a level where it’s interesting. It’s easy to give up on an idea when it sports a Freddy Krueger or Nixon mask. This is when the men are made and the transgenders cast away on some sordid chemical castration sojourn.
Two things to watch tomorrow.
Pin action in NOW, CRWD, ZS, ZEN and HUBS.
Also, take a close view of bonds yields. Should yields sink again, you’re gonna want to buy gold.
On the long side, I have been buying an array of biotechs, caught a massive runner in the past hour of trade today with BNTX — long from $18.20, currently trading above $21.
This is what I do lads, day in and day out. Do not ask me how I find said fish, simply sit back and enjoy them.
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Bonds are good for a trade higher through the end of Oct. Big cash reserves, bonds, and some Gold headed into November. But, the Turkey gods lurk and will arrive this year.
I think your timing on this was better than mine. The candle chart on TLT is very favorable now, and the it’s already up this morning, while I’ve been adding TLT for a week now.
I’m looking for a big flush and a turkey run. Setting up perfect to make a killing
Boeing missed earnings but is up. They are lucky they are part of a duopoly.
More premarket:
CAT is down on earnings
TI is down on earnings
SNAP is down on ernings
Norfolk SOuthern (NSC) is down on earnings
General Dynamics (GD) is down on earings
Eli Lilly (LLY) is down on earnings
Anthem Healthcare (ANTM) is down on earnings
Oh, but Boston Scientific (BSX) is up
Also, one addendum to my SAAS analysis: Many of these companies are so vastly overpriced, that you STILL don’t wnat to touch them, even with good news from MSFT/AMZN.
Words you don’t see on a SAAS earnings statement “GAAP profit”.
DiSAASter is right. I’ve yet to find a SAAS company I want to own for at least 1 year based on various stock screens. The whole sector seems overburdened by high customer acquistion costs, either through rapidly risign Sales costs or direct purchase of samller competitors. This sector might bounce (probably will at some point), but price discovery will hit it again at the next recession.
I’ll take another look this weekend where I can weed through non-GAAP numbers and look for a diamond in the buring coals, but the best SAAS play may be what the market is already telling you: MSFT.
Agree on MSFT. Have you seen AVLR?
Well, they are a software company that still manages to lose moeny every year, so it (along with most of the others) didn’t pass my initial screening.
Sometime non-GAAP numbers are more informative, but because they are (by definition) completely up to each company to define on its own, you can’t just setup a stock screener based on those number Instead, you have to look at each one an individual basis to see if their approach makes sense or if it is just lipstick on a pig.
AVLR is still losign money on a non-GAAP basis, so that isn’t promising, especailyl since its public history is too short to really project from and has doubled in the short year that it has been publicly trading. Doubt i will buy that one.
And of course the main problem with MSFT is (simialr to AAPL), it is on the historically high end of it valuation.