Good morning lads.
Last year this time you were all talking extreme shit, only to get your teeth punched out clean inside of two short months. The major difference between then and now is rates. Back then the Fed was still independent and wanted to hike rates, causing leveraged loans to fuck themselves. This go around the Fed is slashing rates and We Work is under pressure for being a scam. I don’t know, does a $47 billion disaster mean anything? Asking for a friend.
This go around, we’re all powerful and strong, chests out and cocks hard. We walk around with confidence, no matter the news. President impeached? Fuck him. Bad economic data? Fuck off. See, just like that, I dismissed all of the worries and can noW feel good about going long equities.
Can the market swan dive this year like last year?
No, absolutely not. The market never does what you expect it to do, especially follow the exact path of the previous year. It’s very likely we’ll do the exact opposite of what people think will happen.
Futures are +65 and everything is SAFU. Today is my Quant reshuffling day and I’m still REELING from a few trading account losses from yesterday. Hopefully I can clear those out, get back to winning again, and also fix some of the technical issues that were fucking me yesterday inside Exodus.
Wish me luck!
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This morning’s not-yet-released-to-the-unwashed data must be strong.
Here’s the thing about a trade deal:
Let’s say your on a bridge going 60 mph and you realized that there is a gap 200 ft ahead and your brakes don’t work. If the brakes instantly start working again, great, you’re saved! However, if they don’t start workign until 2 secodns alter, too bad.
Factor in the China’s stronger position (so far, the only things they “gave in” o are to help themselves such as their pork crisis) and Trump’s weakening political position (Oh, so the Attorney General is goign on an unnnounced world tour to try and undermine US intelligence agencies? Nothing to see there.), the US may end up with a worse trade deal than pre-tariffs. All that pain, and no gain?
In other news, rising Japanese interets rates (https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/japanese-bond-crash-margin-call-sends-shockwaves-around-globe) ought to unwind the carry trade PDQ.
PS, if anyone doesn’t know how to Google “carry trade”, then you don’t have the knowledge or skills to try and make money off it.
SPY bounced off 298 again. I am now short the market significantly, long MU as a hedge