Reasonable people hate this rally. But what do you plan to do, fight the war without ammunition and a flam-flam army of ragged fucktards?
Clearly, the bulls have the initiative here. Clearly, the FAGBOX has been broke and with that the consolidation phase.
At a minimum, new highs are likely. However, there are cross-currents and I took measures to address that today. I sold a lot of stuff and bought a lot of stuff, pretty much conducting an entire portfolio makeover. No sense it letting stale stocks sit around doing nothing.
I think gold has lower to go. I think rates will reflate a little. And I think “The Fly” has a series of magnificent wins just around the bend.
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There’s definitely animal spirits about.
I took a look at the “Conversations” about Roku on the Yahoo boards and everybody’s bullish. It’s crazy.
“Target 223” Really? Based on what?
Then’s there’s a lot of past-performance-indicates-future-perforamnce such as
“It went down and recovered before, so it will alwasy recover” or “Look at NFLX/AMNZ/AAPL”. Aboslutely zero discussion of revenue, or even predictions about cash flows.
That in itself isn’t as surprising as the extreme lack of any bearish commenters..
My favorite (all from the same person):
“I’m a novice investor and new to this board. How does a stock price rise this quickly?”
“I am quite happy I dismissed my broker, took over my account, and now have bought roko for past 6 weeks and have 1138 shares”
and
“I started studying a little about three months ago and now I’m doing my own trades. Sold all my underperforming and fee-laden mutual funds and bonds which were a sucubus and bought mostly Roku.”
With Roku almost fully recovered, this will probably just encourage them, even while the 156.88 gap (and 7% gain on no news) is still there.
Stocktwits ROKU stream is infinitely better than Yahoo finance lol. It’s still an internet stock forum but at least some of the people are sharing some reasonable stuff. Sentiment also seems fair on the ST stream.
https://stocktwits.com/symbol/ROKU
Thanks, db.
For me, the main question isn’t which stream is more fair/balanced (Because I don’t really look to them for advice), its which stream represents the average investor sentiment more.
CNN also references stocktwits (https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/). I’ve noticed that GILD is always among the top 3, but not sure why.
I’ve seen stokctwits
As a reminder, it was July the last time the markets were this high. Take a look at the Trade War chronology since that time:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war#Chronology:_2019-2020
While I understand why you wouldn’t the reasons not to short strocks right now, why would you want to *own * them?
I wonder if it is true that China is investing 400 billion into Iranian oil production and the silk road.
What about Fed talk tomorrow?
Good point
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2019-September.htm
According to the WSJ (via ZH), the FED has already decided on a 25pt cut
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-09-05/wsj-kills-hopes-50bps-fed-rate-cut-two-weeks
I’m not sure we have received any late news that woudl change that, although the unemployment report is due tomorrow morning.
Should be a big market day tomorrow.
Add this news release:
“The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates a downward adjustment to March 2019 total nonfarm employment of -501,000 (-0.3 percent)…The existing employment series are not updated…The data for all CES series will be updated when the final benchmark revision is issued”
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesprelbmk.htm
To this chart:
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bphXIqhA6as/XXJTcFu0I6I/AAAAAAAAy78/9roJ_rv0iMgrBKOEvxyYoYsoUdPHUvfVgCLcBGAs/s1600/EmployYoYAug2019.PNG
(current post on employment here: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/09/august-employment-report-105000-jobs.html)
Degenerate gamble: bought IBB (weakest sector IMO) 102 puts expiring today at a 5 cents.