iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,527 Blog Posts

You’re Not Smarter Than Everyone Else — Fall Back in Line

I am going to show you a chart that is the truth. You might believe it to be the opposite of the truth — because it’s unconventional — but I’ll explain it in a moment.

Back in December — now with the benefit of hindsight, Xmas marked the bottom. Had you bought there and held — you made a fortune — but you were also a moron for doing so. It was a shot in the dark, a lucky gamble that paid off — no different from a spin on the one arm bandit. The correct, or higher probability trade was on January 4th, when stocks broke the downward patterns and oil spiraled higher. The black candles ceased to scare investors away and dips were bought with alacrity and vigor.

The same logic applies to today. If you sold, or bought TVIX or TZA, you’re a moron — and that’s fine if your family has a rich and long history of producing morons. You can’t help yourself — no different from a reprobate unable to appreciate the finer things in life — such as pear tarts with a dash of blood orange mascarpone stipple, mind you, on top.

This is where you relax and wait, wait for coked out hedge funders to make a final push towards alpha before heading out to St. Bart’s to waste their summers away. There is not a chance, not even a little bit, for a reversal to the downside before Easter.

 

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22 comments

  1. J Adabese (your pen pal)
    J Adabese (your pen pal)

    FIG !!! Boooolish close.

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  2. numbersgame

    This may surprise you, but I agree to some extent, with this caveat: it depends on your timeframe.
    Trading horizon: “Let your winners run, cut your losers quickly”
    Longer horizon: “Buy low, sell high”

    My 30-year Treasuries are for a 0-3 year timeframe (until an impending recession pulls their rates to 2.5% and I will diversify into stocks). There’s no way I want to buy stocks within 5% of ATHs and hold them long-term particularly with an unknown resolution to the China trade situation. The Treasuries may certainly drop in principal if we get a stock rally, but I’m betting (literally) that they’ll recover whenever the recession hits and the FED pulls down the rate curve. This plan underperfroms if we don’t hit a recession by Dec 2021.

    Now if you want to time the market (or think we can go 3 more years without a recession), then go ahead and stay in and hope to get out in time.

    For short term, VIX is at a low (near 13, “Morons bought here” point), which seems good for another spike to 17. Unfortunately, I do not have a flock that I can front-run on low-volume micro-caps, so I have a differnt short-term strategy.

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    • it is showtime

      It’s said that if it happens in government it’s not an accident. (stupid aphorism) If it happens with primary us indexes it’s not an accident. It’s a psych op of level, attainment, timing, etc, since the coordinated savior pivot. [It’s] That simple. If one’s predictions happen to be in line with the rigging agenda you get a perceived win

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    • ferd

      “recession by Dec 2021”

      That’s a long time away and outside of any time frame that I trade. But if there is a challenger to Trump who the PTB think actually has morals and who respects the citizens’ right to know truths, they will pull out all the stops to keep things going in order to reelect Trump.

      Of the current candidates, Tulsi Gabbard seems to have them and their MSM tools, the most worried.

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  3. it is showtime

    Breakdown#3. looms.
    [Can they bring it to new highs before the (final) inflection pt? uh. of course]
    As was the case pre and post breakdown#1
    [Might they want to give one more shock treatment onslaught to shorters?]
    As is the case yes. It’s blatantly detectable
    Syndicate game. licked.

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    • edge

      So buy SOXL? I said that already…made good money today but I sold it. I have a feeling I’ll be buying it back. TDAmeritrade must love this market.
      Yes, SOXS is later. On to Victory.

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      • it is showtime

        Yeah whether one believes it’s by design or not, the sox was a leader in the rebound ascent from the start. I would say more machination than leader. If you want to hit the reversal this would be the time to avg in SOXS
        if sox starts another leg watch for the breakout fail, looking at max chart it’s really arguably just qe-induced boosts

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        • edge

          I don’t deny the possibility of manipulation, but those dollars count the same. If there is manipulation now it seems to me it could last until the elections.
          I don’t think you’re necessarily crazy, just way too early! When the time comes we will be short too.

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  4. MSGT HARTMAN

    To all the day trading noobs:

    The market can go down lower and and stay down lower longer than you can hold your position.

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  5. torero

    All of that QT & rate hikes, well they are justing starting to hit ground. Monetary policy has a lag of 12-18 months. Nothing the pansy ass Fed nor anyone else can do about it.

    Expecting the shit to dump Q2 or Q3, maybe as low as 2,200, and then a recovery at end of year.

    Until then I’m playing the charts.

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  6. fxtradepro

    Sold out of energy via XLE perhaps a little too early, ceste la vie. I’ll likely start a new position in Treasuries tomorrow via TLT followed by ZERO and accumulate over the next week or 2 – this will be the easiest trade of the year between now and May/June time frame.

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  7. edge

    You know who’s smarter than everyone else? Hedge fund managers. Just kidding.
    They’ve been flooding out of equities, and although I can’t blame anyone for being skeptical of the market, they are likely overdoing it.
    Part of the problem with the economy and the markets is that financial geniuses are not in charge…just people who pretend to be.

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