Today’s Beige Book confirmed what I told you FUCKERS weeks ago, when I discussed AMKR.
In their recent call, the chip maker for the iPhone said sales DROPPED OFF A FUCKING CLIFF — off by 30%. But the stock rallied and the market bounced because they said their customers believe Q2 will be better than Q1. Today’s Beige Book numbers confirm that — so it’s not really news, only for absolute retards.
Two [firms] reported substantial drops in sales and two reported significant weakness. The two firms that reported serious issues were a semiconductor manufacturer and a furniture builder…. The semiconductor firm sells mostly to the auto industry and said that a 40 percent drop in new orders from China was the biggest fall in sales since the collapse of Lehman in 2008. Two other firms, both with heavy exposure to semiconductors, said that the market had slowed significantly since earlier in 2018 –
Additionally, Fed’s Williams had all sort of idiotic things to say at an economic forum today, such as considering negative rates here during the next crisis.
The lowlights.
Major risks to U.S. economy are global.
Financial conditions have partially reversed 2018 decline, but a lot of that is due to Fed.
Inflation risks don’t seem to be out there at all right now.
I don’t have a particular lean on where rates should go.
In a downturn we could consider quantitative easing, negative rates.
Cost-benefit tradeoffs of negative rates not as favorable as quantitative easing.
No decisions have been made on inflation framework.
We’re not trying to achieve high inflation.
No answer on when balance sheet normalization will end.
Inflation expecations are well behaved but it’s worth considering consequences if below target for an extended period.
Can’t wait for the next crisis to begin.
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The Fed should issue credit cards with ten percent cash back and a bailout guarantee.
The last time I heard about something in the economy falling off a cliff was, I think, January or February 2009. But that was the whole economy. Such fond memories and we might get a re-do.
Let’s nail it.
“so it’s not really news, only for absolute retards.”
Good point, Fly, and belated thanks for the AMKR earnigns call info. Of course, the question still remains: will Q2 and beyond be better – or worse? TBD
I’m long and short, would like an opening gap and run.. looking for a bounce.