Last month, the US economy added the most jobs in 11 months. Next week Friday, the US economy is expected to have added 185k jobs in February with an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Average hour earnings are expected to have gained steam, up 0.3% vs 0.1% the month prior. All of this is coming due on the tail end of one of the best rallies known to mankind — certainly the best start to a new year in a very long time.
Recently, government bonds have been creeping, ever so quietly.
So what have we learned over the past 4 months?
Markets do not like trade wars. Markets do not like rates rising too high — because we’ve learned they, at some point, apply too much pressure to the leveraged loan markets and others areas of the bond market — specifically junk.
If the 10yr breaks 3.00% next week and the jobs numbers are better than expected, you will begin to hear rumors and innuendo that the Fed is back on the table — them and their disgusting dot plot.
Markets don’t like dot plots, or anything that increases the borrowing costs of the trillions owed across a sundry of industries.
Thus far, we’ve V shaped up — done the improbable and mostly every person that I know is shocked by this occurrence.
My best guess — shit gets resolved by St. Patrick’s Day. We’ll all be drunk by then anyway — but I suspect we’ll have a clearer view of what this economy is looking like by then, even under the influence of some Irish whiskey and burdened by fatty meats.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Thanks for the heads up, Dr. Fly.
Fly, going back to your amzn/cost post. Do you think that grocery stores like kr doing their online grocery pickup is retarded? The “picker uppers” hog every isle with their tank sized baskets, guarding items from people who actually look for things to buy in the store
I am shocked by the steep upward leg of the v. There have been small consolidations to the 21, 50, and 200 MAs (SPX). Now the SPX is the same distance above both its 200 day and 21 day and it would seem likely to consolidate to its 21 day at least, which would mean a modest decline of 50 pts or less to 2750 ish.
The last consolidation was exactly between the 200 day EMA and the 200 day SMA, which was interesting.
Why do I think what I wrote is too logical….
Im not shocked. Commandeered baby.
Jerryrigged. Is it not congruent with a coordinated synthetic aim/sequence?
i still say it’s trick-antic and next drop is coming
Looks like they’re forcing up futures to start the week again.
[You’re Running-Out Aholers]
You must have banked a shit ton of coin 10 years ago.
I am with showtime but right now my physical gold trade is not doing very well, this whole thing is a big “WHEN???”
I hear you. Keep trying to find edges homie!