Here is the set up.
We’re in the range of chop that serves as resistance. Also, we’re coming into former support on the QQQs at $160. You want to listen very quietly to the Apple conference call tonight, and bear witness to their disgrace. Analysts will want to know how sales are since their warning. Tim Cook will tell them that things look soft, and then try to highlight strong sales in services.
Ignore this as nonsensical garbage.
Stocks should, in theory, revoke all of the gains enjoyed during the month of January and retest the lows. However, before we get there, we need to see technical damage and a breakdown in oil and junk bonds. I believe they’re both intertwined, so once oil cracks — so will HYG.
I sold out of W and COUP for a wash and added to my NUGT position. Only gold has consistently made highs without dramatic flair or pause. I am 35% cash in my trading account and tentatively bearish. Due to recent developments in getting whip-sawed by trades inside the 3x universe of fucked up products, I am revoking access to myself until the QQQs confirm a break lower — under $160. There will be plenty of money to be made in the middle, roasting the fat stomachs of bulls whilst smoking their ashes in our pipes. No need to be early, for the year is long and filled with terrors.
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The last week has felt like 1,000,000 years on Wall Street and all of the horse shit. Powell will not be able to hold up this market for long, if at all.
I think you are right about oil and hyg. The only question is how much of an effect AAPL has on those, in terms of risk on/off.
Also, I have no money on AAPL either way, but it’s a given that it will end the week either above 160 or below 150. If it actually ends up between those numbers, that would be even more bearish, as I feel the path would be long (down) and painful, as opposed to a retest and re-assess.
Incidentally, I have no money in AAPL either way, but I suspect that they have news that they think the market won’t like. My reasoning is that it seems unuusal that they issued a press release on “Apple sessions” today – almost as if to distract people, and also that Jan 2 pre-announcement seems to set the stage for bad news that the market may ahve forgotten
So AAPL barely exceeding their *revised* Jan 2 Revenue target and badly missed on earnings ($4.18 vs $4.77) This is ~10-15% below their Dec forecast.
They are projecting that next quarter will also be a year-over-year decline in both revenue ($57B) and income (~$13.1B).
While my original plan was to follow the afterhours market momentum, I don’t undersatnd why the stock went *up* on this report. Therefore, I will wait until 10am tomorrow when Adults start trading and digesting this news. Of couse, it could be as sign of a bullsih undercurrent, but we’ll see.
Never mind, the 4.77 was sahres (billion outstadnign). Their Jan 2 EPS was $4.16, so they met that (but still below the Dec forecast
It’s all a game, trying to make sense is futile.
Thank you Apple for saving the market. Hope Cook does well on the CC.
Sold UVXY in AH. Added some NUGT.
facebook, boeing, microsoft, at&t, paypal, us steel, sirius, mcdonalds, baba earnings all tomorrow. should be interesting.
Ladies and gentlemen….. To the mooooooooooooooon
This pattern of the Sp500 suggests higher. But 2700-2730 should offer significant resistance and risk.
I think we are right at a major reistance/support level (2640-2650) right now.
While AAPL has provided a step up, I am reminded that the FED minutes are released today, which will have a much bigger effect on oil/HYG
Today they pumped oil and dumped tech (Keing index players wondering) I sold oil and bought aapl,fb, msft, intc, amd. was down 2% today.
Last night saw WHR down big AHs, thought about buying in pre market. woke up late, in the heat of morning madness forgot all about it….
I do have LEAP positions on several miner and I fear/think the entire sector is very ripe for a short term sell-off. If we open higher again in the morning, I’ll look into some short term puts/insurance.
Indeed, tomorrow’s overall market action will be very telling…
I read a quote long ago about gold miners” A hole in the ground and a liar on top”.
good read
I’d keep an open mind about oil ripping higher from here. Arguably, it’s high and tight and set up to thrust to at least the 59 area …or, it may be setting up and inverted H+S pattern …if you’re a chartLGBTQ. If it breaks higher based on events, it may help HYG, but not the broader market ..as the Naz looks like it may be ready to roll over in spite of AAPL’s comforting words.
Big up day, all cylinders, take my money and run….