Saudi-US Row Improbable, But If It Does Happen — Here’s How You Play It

Saudi Arabia and the United States have a very curious relationship. If you look at it on face value and how friendly they are with Israel — it makes no sense. But why bother trying to understand the machinations of world leaders? Let’s play the game and see where it takes us.

In response to growing calls to punish The House of Saud for potentially murdering a Wapo journalist, Saudi Arabia issued an official statement, and an unofficial one via proxy. The proxy statement is a threat.

“The kingdom affirms its total rejection of any threats and attempts to undermine it, whether by threatening to impose economic sanctions, using political pressures or repeating false accusations,” the government said in a statement released to Saudi media. “The Kingdom also affirms that if it receives any action, it will respond with greater action.”

Turki Aldakhil, who leads the Saudi-controlled Al Arabiya television news network, warned Sunday that U.S. sanctions could ignite an “economic disaster that would rock the entire world.”

“If the price of oil reaching $80 angered President Trump, no one should rule out the price jumping to $100, or $200, or even double that figure,” Aldakhil wrote in an opinion piece on the Al Arabiya website. He said the fallout could drive “the entire Muslim world into the arms of Iran.”

If Saudi Arabia think they could get away with it, they’re probably right. The idea that oil skyrocketing higher is a concern for the US is a joke. We are net producers of crude and I believe it is in America’s best interest to see oil skyrocket. So let’s play the game and see where it takes us.

Buy refiners.

The US refiners source oil domestically and will be gifted with a unique situation with the price of Brent running way higher than WTI, should we sanction the Saudis. Remember, the refiners source in WTI, but retail in Brent. Hence the blow out in Brent vs WTI becomes pure profit.