I don’t have the nerve to gamble any further with upside positions, so I bought a hedge earlier today. I went long ERY — hoping for the best, but expecting the worst.
Markets are extreme OS, especially tech. Look at the oscillator for tech from Exodus.
That is just about the most OS we’ve been in a year, maybe more. Oil is typically very sensitive to economic shifts and rarely does well during corrections and bear markets. This is a doomsday hedge.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Stop hedging back and forth.
NO
Remember when you used to write (which I agreed with) that Overbought is a Buy signal because of momentum in a Bull market?
Welcome to the flip side.
I went from short NFLX w/long tech hedge, to long tech with short NFLX hedge. The Bulls have 2 days to prevent this Bull correction from going full Bear, so let’s see if they have what it takes.
Overbought means buy AND oversold means buy in a secular bull. Otherwise…
My point being, with fear and anxiety this high (along with PEs), we may no longer BE in a secular bull market in which case Oversold is a plunge warning, while Overbought means Sell the Rip
Whether we are curently in a Bull correction or a Bear market will only be known retrospectively in the future, after we either make a new high (Bull correction) or drop down to -20% (full Bear).
That’s called hindsight bias. Good investors/traders always know what kind of mkt they’re in, across timeframes.
You can never *know* what type of market you are in during a transition.
What type of market were we in on November 8, 2007?
it’s not bulls that have 2 days, it’s the Working Group on Financial Markets executive order 12631 but whatever floats your boat
Is there an ibc Bath Towel i can buy
Mine will say gloom and doom
Fly, If you are holidng long term, why not short ERX instead of going long ERY?
A better question is: Why would anyone with a large cash position as Fly claims use either of these instruments? I guess math is not Fly’s strong suit.
..although shorting a triple makes a lot more sense than going long.
Markets look squirrelly. This pig is starting to sweat.
Really?! 😉
Muh Stagflation!
A nice timely correction (with requisite narrative) will lead to higher markets. Energy for one has not become over extended. Sandwich-eaters.
Too bad you did not just keep sqqq.
Why would markets collapse in the first place?
1. The orange one wants fair trade deals
2. A Darwin moment for self driving car’s baby technology
3. Fuckbook gotta do something about privacy
4. Amazon gotta face the music
5. A bear trap gotta be set by the algos in trading before a holiday after $XIV collapse
What am I missing?
What you’re missing is that the usual riggers at Citadel, PPT, etc, are deep state marxists who want Trump out and some other communist like Hussein Obama in, the financial system reached unsustainable level of debt and is ready to crash on its own, Israel is itching to watch amerikan goyim die for them in ME so talmudic rabbinism can enjoy larger lebensraum on stolen and occupied land, the Soros paid antifa and lowlife communists like Hogg want your guns, the USG is itching to incite civil war so they can counteract with martial law enforced by militarized police, bust your front door and confiscate your guns, the FEMA camps are now ready to be converted to concentration camps and start gassing white males and burn christians in ovens,…should stop now?
https://tinyurl.com/y9efrmgg
Hogg’s dad is a LEO who owns guns and Hogg says he is happy that his dad owns guns. Maybe Justice JPS wants your guns, but he represents only about 10-15% of Americans.
delusion: gassing white males and burn(ing) christians in ovens
reality 1: shooting a black man 20 times who was holding a phone in a relatives back yard and
reality 2: arresting (with no shots fired) a white MAGA man who had just killed 17 classmates with an assault rifle
Profits. Money is being made. What more could one ask for?
Why crash? cus the leaders have left the party.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-28/smart-money-dumping-stocks-btfd-officially-ends
Complacency. Every time BTFD works, it makes it more likely that the next time will be the rug pull. There are no full-proof strategies. Look at XIV. It works until it doesn’t. This has been one of the longest bull runs in history. The downturn should be just as epic.
I would make an analogy here to winter is coming, but I’m too lazy, and will just soak in a nice puddle of mud.
Tell me this. Let’s say that you buy a bond that pays 4% for $100. If nothing else changes, would you expect that bond to be worth $110 in a year? Of course not, yet Bulls are convinced that markets should go always go up with good economic conditions, when logically they should only go up when conditions/news become *better than previously expected.*
More to the point, when a stock is priced as if nothing can go wrong, and past earnings growth get projected to future earnigns growth to infinity (or in the case of stock like NFLX, when they get imagined and never materialize), then it doesn’t take much to pop that ballon. Also, if a 20% gain is seen as nothing extraordianry, then why would a 20% loss be such a black swan as many investors react?
Also, perhaps this isn’t going to be a total market Bear, but just a sector rotation out of high-beta, high-PE tech. It means saying good-bye to blind BTFD ETF purchases (where big-cap, high PE stocks magnify gains AND losses) and start learning how to be more selective. I thought I was a stock-picking genius in 1999 – turns out I would have been more financially prudent if i had just bought a sports car.