iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,445 Blog Posts

Retail Stocks Boom: A Quick Lesson in Mean Reversion

What we do in Exodus isn’t complicated. We rank stocks by both their technicals and fundamentals, using an algorithm that we created — which took 9 months to develop. After being satisfied with the rating system, we then began to collect the data for the purposes of analyzing it.

I did not go into Exodus, which was then called The PPT, thinking that I could develop some sort of predictive algorithm that was going to help me predict the future. That’d be crazy, right?

But then I started to see patterns develop, so we began charting the extreme ranges for the overall system, later breaking them down by sector and over 200 industries, further developing the algorithms to encompass various time frames in order to allow the system to breathe and learn the market as it changed.

We do not pretend to know precisely when a stock, a sector, an industry, or the overall market will bottom or stop going up. But we have big datasets that are analyzed that can provide you with a reference point, backed up by trasparent win/loss rates.

Case in point, retail stocks are raging higher today, partly thanks to $RH.

Just last week, the algorithms that we employ for the services sector and department stores hit an annual low. An enterprising trader might’ve seen that and said enough is enough and stepped in.

Apparel stores

And here are the standouts. Big movers.
$M, $DDS, $RH, $SHLD, $EXPR, $LE, $BKE, $ANF, $PIR.

Last week, the entire system flagged Oversold for the first time in 9 months, sporting a hit rate of 86% over 5 days. Basic materials were most depressed and Oversold, which I saw why I went all in on $WLK, even before the system flagged oversold.

Expect more upside, followed by an easing of the gains. The fast money will be made now.

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11 comments

  1. thegametheorist

    Kaiser soze

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    • rigged game

      If you can’t make an intelligible comment, STFU.

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      • thegametheorist

        Did you eat your wheaties this morning? That movie was great.

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      • thegametheorist

        Guess you haven’t seen it or you would understand that this picture is from the closing scene of The Usual Suspects. Highly recommend it

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  2. anjingbauwau

    An enterprising trader might’ve saw that and said enough is enough and stepped in. 2 groups put bottoms in… the shorts covering and moving onto the next trade and the deep value investors who take the approach that things are trading at a discount to NAV and or below some theoretical break up value.

    I think you are going to see a sector rotation into the energy space. The refiners are coming off a heavy maintenance season and will start ramping up , imports are just about finished off… today was only a slight build… lets see sentiment swing when the US inventory draw-downs start to appear.

    March 8th is the key day on the charts to watch….that’s where the market broke down….

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  3. notthesec

    can we have a vote to BAN OA if snap doesn’t hit new highs by april?

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    • jahfari

      This is such ridiculous bullshit.

      Scrap together what little you have and buy a subscription in order to learn how this man changes lives.

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      • jahfari

        In addition to SNAP, he called SHLD pre 30% move… you clearly only see the free shit.

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  4. Dr. Fly

    OA Is a national treasure. By the way, he’ll be trading inside Exodus for April.

    I agree, energy is ripe.

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    • sarcrilege

      Fly, can you plug in gold/silver, compensate for the stupid paper ETF fraud and come up w/ a real value for phyz similar to this guy:
      https://tinyurl.com/lfkl8j7 ?

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    • anjingbauwau

      so what is your thinking in terms of where you would feel you could get a nice return on money invested in this space?

      I am a curious sort and am always looking for insights from the traderverse

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