Carter Worth on Deutsche Bank: ‘There’s No Telling How Low it Can Go, Including All the Way’

Following a long summer of french martinis and bloody marys, Carter Braxton Worth has placed his polo gear in the family mud room and taken to the charts to have a gander, or two, at Deutsche Bank.

He posits the shares have zero support, currently well below the 2009 lows, saying it can go ‘all the way.’ He then goes on to compare its paltry $15b market cap to some of its American competitors, whose caps are 10x Germany’s largest bank. Having a eureka moment. C.B. Worth says ‘something’s wrong here.’

Indeud.

The new bond King, Jeff Gundlach, offers some sage advice here, in a Reuters interview by morse code.

“I would just stay away. It’s un-analyzable,” Gundlach told Reuters by phone about Deutsche Bank shares and debt. “It’s too binary. The market is going to push down Deutsche Bank until there is some recognition of support. They will get assistance, if need be.”

“One day, Deutsche Bank shares will go up 40 percent. And it will be the day the government bails them out. That jump will happen in a minute,” Gundlach said.

“It is about an event which is completely out of your control.”

While we all love to see Germany’s biggest bagholder punished in biblical terms, it’s a toxic trade for both longs and shorts. On one hand, the bank is all but dead. The capital base is on the verge of destruction — with over $1.8t in assets and a market cap slightly above $15b. On the other, in spite of what Merkel said, there is no way the Bundesbank permits DB to blow up, when considering they underwrote every single Greek bailout over the past decade.

The billion dollar question is, when will Germany assist Deutsche Bank? Do you know? I have no idea. I’m guessing they won’t do it, unless the stock gets hammered a little bit more. Clearly, they’d like to avoid displaying moral hazard for as long as they can. But, if we’re being honest here, the entirety of western finance is now a rigged game of smoke and mirrors. You’d have to be crazy to believe they’d sit back and let Deutsche Bank unravel and then blow up.

Short sellers will be met with an awfully acrimonious vengeance, whenever the Bundesbank decides to step in. You’re better off sitting back and enjoying the shit-show.

Early polling suggests Proposition 61 will easily pass in California on November the 8th, with 50% already in favor of it, compared to a meager 16% saying they’d vote no. If passed, it will permit the State of California to negotiate costs for the 3 million Medi-cal patients, 830k state employees and retirees, in addition to another 294k teachers.

For now, the ordinary, non-warden of the state, will not enjoy the splendour of prop 61. But it’s a start.

RBC analyst, Mike Yee, says it’s mostly headline risk and should only affect earnings by 2-3% — due to the limited scope of the porgram.

In a note to clients, RBC Dominion Securities Analyst Michael Yee indicated the passage of this measure could adversely affect all the biotech companies in his coverage universe, including Amgen Inc., Gilead Sciences Inc., Celgene Corp., Biogen Inc., Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc., and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. However, Yee doesn’t think this measure would have a materially deleterious effect on pharmaceutical companies’ financial performance.

“We think a possible 2-3 percent earnings per share impact to large-caps if this initiative were passed across all 50 states, but this is more headline risk than anything,” the analyst wrote.

Nevertheless, this could be a keystone event that leads the way towards other states making a stand against big pharma. In spite of their efforts in California, outspending the people by a factor of 7, higher drug prices for the benefit of a few C level execs and company share buyback just isn’t resonating with the people.

“After $35 million spent (so far by opponents) on lying ads … it’s gotten them 16 percent of the vote,” Weinstein said of the David-and-Goliath battle that has seen Big Pharma spend at least $86 million to defeat the measure. In contrast, the proponents have raised at least $14 million.

Speciality pharma stocks MNK, MYL, ALKS, ENDP, VRX, ALNY and a sundry of other pharma stocks were pummeled today.

Since $DB has fallen on hard times, with the stock being hammered into oblivion, I thought it’d be ‘fun’ in a Schadenfreude sort of way, to highlight some companies that are now bigger than Europe’s largest bank.

Credit Suisse
Newmont Mining
Molson Brewing
Panasonic
Suntrust
Campbell Soup
Sirius XM
Hertz Global
Southern Copper
L Brands
Sunlife Financial
Hormel Foods
Level 3
Sprint
M&T Bank
Ctrip
Twitter
Ulta
Dr. Pepper
JM Smucker

A report came out this afternoon that a few hedge funds were withdrawing their funds from Deutsche Bank — a small little provincial bank with over $1.8t in assets and $50-75t in derivatives. Aside from being Europe’s largest bank, the IMF said it poses the greatest risk to the financial system.

There are many who believe DB is more dangerous that LEH ever was, specifically because Germany, and all of Europe, have been using it as a cesspool, dumping all of the refuse from the edges of Europe onto its balance sheets.

Bloomberg reports:

While the vast majority of Deutsche Bank’s more than 200 derivatives-clearing clients have made no changes, some funds that use the bank’s prime brokerage service have moved part of their listed derivatives holdings to other firms this week, according to an internal bank document seen by Bloomberg News. Millennium Partners, Capula Investment Management and Rokos Capital Management are among about 10 hedge funds that have cut their exposure, said a person familiar with the situation who declined to be identified talking about confidential client matters.

The hedge funds use Deutsche Bank to clear their listed derivatives transactions because they are not members of clearinghouses. Millennium, Capula and Rokos declined to comment when contacted by phone or e-mail.

“Our trading clients are amongst the world’s most sophisticated investors,” Michael Golden, a spokesman for Deutsche Bank, said in an e-mailed statement. “We are confident that the vast majority of them have a full understanding of our stable financial position, the current macroeconomic environment, the litigation process in the U.S. and the progress we are making with our strategy.”

As a result of this report and everything else going on, investors dropped DB like a hot volcanic stone. Shares slid and the market followed suit.

So how did CNBC report on it? Like clowns. Take a shot for every time ‘small’ was said in this clip. I especially like the conspiracy theory conjured up by the leprechaun, regarding hedge funds short DB and then removing funds to make their trades profitable. Hey bozo, the stock is down over 60% for 2016. It doesn’t need any help from nefarious hedge funds to eat dirt.

Shameful journalism here.

Commerzbank announced they were culling 20% of its workforce, or 10,000 people, and will stop paying those pesky dividends, in an effort to restructure.

They’re taking a charge of $1.2b, citing a deleterious loan environment and negative ECB interest rates, as well as digital banking, as the root of all evil for them.

Compared to Deutsche Bank’s generous 10% cut in their workforce, the managers at Commerzbank look like true assholes.

The shares are off by 3% today and more than 45% over the past year.

Related: Zerohedge is out with an article that states there is a contagion of sorts, a nascent zombie apocalypse forming in Europe, as it pertains to Deutsche Bank.

Tyler states:

“Storm in a teacup” this is not.

While global markets remain calm(ish), distracted by OPEC headlines, US election ‘entertainment’, and Middle East proxy wars, the reality is, something very ugly is accelerating in Europe. With the collapse of the “most systemically dangerous bank in the world” we should hardly be surprised, but Deutsche Bank’s crash is being shrugged off by average joes on mainstream media… and besides, the central banks will save us, right?

Well, Deutsche contagion is spreading… rapidly.

Since Deutsche’s recent highs, the short-end of the EUR-USD basis swap curve has collapsed…

He then, ever so graciously, offered everyone some pornographic charts, proving that counter-party risk hedging is in fact soaring.

Enjoy.

Crack spreads are still rich, above $14.

But the working theory is, with lower US production levels and higher Brent crude pricing, margins at American refiners will shrink. It has been a wretched year for refiners all year, an olde school favorite sector of mine. I often harken back to the days of when I was rock solid long and strong WNR, without a moment of flaccid wavering. I bore the brunt of a harsh, Greek led, sell off and came out the other end a better man.

But much of the old refiner trade was based on the spread between WTI and Brent. With the U.S. oil production boom, refiners were grabbing cheap WTI and selling it at Brent pricing. It was egregious, quasi-illegal, and fantastic. Subsequently, all of that has gone away. The spreads between WTI and Brent have vanished and American oil is something the House of Saud scowls upon (cue Gary from spongebob).

Once again, the refiners are getting smoked. Look at those YTD losses.

So what exactly do the revenues and earnings situation look like for them? Let’s dive into some revenue and earnings charts for the quintessential poster child for the industry, HFC, courtesy of Exodus.

On the price to sales basis, the stock is the cheapest since 2010.

This is just a boom and bust industry, no one knows where the bottom truly is. Buyers beware.

It’s all the rage amongst pseudo-liberal circles these days. One must sympathize with the ‘cultures’ of others, in this case, the laws mandated by unenlightened, barbarous, men who teach their boys how to properly beat their wives and to make them wear hijabs — for the sake of bittersweet morality. All across western civilizations, government controlled propaganda are teaching our young to conform with oppressive thinking in order to be liberally minded. Ironies abound.

See, we’ve transcended freedom and have now moved towards introducing inequality and oppression as a form of new age thinking — in order to be tolerant to others.

Enter the Female World Championship

This year, lucky for all of those western girls with blonde hair, it will be held in Iran. Back in 1979, after the Islamic Revolution, women have been forced to wear hijabs in Iran — strictly enforced by the comically fucked ‘morality police’ — who will undoubtedly burn in hell immediately after death. As such, the young girls participating in the tournament will be forced, mind you, to wear hijabs — because showing your hair is woefully scandalous and also a blasphemy.

Only a complete moron would arrange for a female chess tournament to be held in Iran. Maybe next year they’ll hold the event in Aleppo, in order to be multi-cultural and all.

As a result, Grandmasters are protesting the event and have accused the government body, FIDE, for being assholes and against women’s rights.

Agree @nigelshortchess . No women should be forced to wear a hijab and no women should be force to take out one.

— Carla Heredia (@HerediaCarla) September 27, 2016

“This violates all what sports means. Sport should be free of discrimination by sex, religion and sexual orientation, “said Carla Heredia, Grandmaster and World Champion ACO’14 ’15, Pan American Champion ’12, Ecuador Olympic Team.

Carla furthered, saying “The obligation to use hijab is one issue, another one is that women can’t share room with a male if she is not married to him. So the question remains what would happen if women chess players want to share the room with a male coach or if women chess players want to prepare for the game visiting the coach’s room.”

FIDE is saying the women should, basically, shut the fuck up and put on the hijab, and to ‘respect’ the ‘cultural differences.’ No shit.

If one of these girls violate the hijab law, when in Iran, they will face arrest, a fine, and a public shaming. Maybe the ‘morality police’ will make them mop floors and iron sheets in the public square?

As if this story couldn’t get more bizarre, one of the young women protesting the event is the US champion, who goes by the name Nazi Paikidze. You really can’t make this up.

Nazi opines.

“It is absolutely unacceptable to host one of the most important women’s tournaments in a venue where, to this day, women are forced to cover up with a hijab.”

“I understand and respect cultural differences. But, failing to comply can lead to imprisonment and women’s rights are being severely restricted in general.

“It does not feel safe for women from around the world to play here.” Paikidze added: “I am honoured and proud to have qualified to represent the United States in the Women’s World Championship. But, if the situation remains unchanged, I will most certainly not participate in this event.”

2017 Women’s Wrld Ch. awarded to Iran. Women forced to wear the Islamic hijab, flouting FIDE statutes against sex & religious discrimination

— Nigel Short (@nigelshortchess) September 27, 2016

@SusanPolgar With all due respect, by wearing a hijab we'd be supporting women's oppression. Relevant article – https://t.co/XG5oznhLWc

— Nazi Paikidze-Barnes (@NaziPaiki) September 27, 2016

World #Chess body rides roughshod over own statutes & IOC Code of Ethics by compelling women to wear #hijab in #Iran https://t.co/TcTz1F4G4Z

— Nigel Short (@nigelshortchess) September 29, 2016

Within the Exodus matrix, there are 4 principle algorithms, divided by time frames. The purpose of this is to ensure the engines learn how markets are behaving and to adjust accordingly.

Our shortest duration algo is 3mos. Back in March of 2016, at market lows, the oversold trigger was 2.31 on a scale of 1-5. As markets improved and volatility vanished, the scores steadily rose to reflect a market that rallied on any semblance of weakness.

Right now the trigger is 2.54, the highest 3 mo score ever, or the shallowest point in history. In other words, it won’t take much of a down tick for the system to flag OS. The interesting allegory being painted here is one that typically precedes sharp sell offs. The very essence of a calm normality is toxic for stocks. The last time the score was near this level was in late June of 2015, when it hit 2.52. Shortly thereafter, the SPY dropped from $205 to $182.

Food for thought.

Courtesy of Bloomberg, here is a rundown of what some prominent Wall Street analysts think of the proposed OPEC production cut. At a minimum, they feel it might be difficult to enforce, let alone keep US production offline as the price of WTI creeps higher.

Citigroup Inc. analysts including Ed Morse:

Assigning individual country quotas is the “major dispute” and while they may be decided at OPEC’s next meeting on Nov. 30, “this is still kicking the can down the road.”
Morgan Stanley analysts including Adam Longson:

Reduction in output to 32.5 million barrels a day doesn’t solve oversupply immediately, but could potentially accelerate market re-balancing to as soon as early 2017.
Focus now turns to execution of deal, where history is poor.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie:

The production plan is likely to boost prices short term, but output quotas could be exceeded even if they are ratified at the November meeting.

“Strictly implemented in the first half of 2017 and all else constant, the production quotas announced today should be worth $7 a barrel to $10 a barrel to the oil price.”

“It has historically taken a fall in oil demand to ensure quota compliance, as in that case, production is forced lower by a decline in refinery intake around the world. This is not the case today with resilient demand growth.”

Stephen Schork, president of Schork Group consulting company in Villanova, Pa.:

“Do the Saudis want to awaken a sleeping giant? They will if prices top $50. The rig count is already rising and shale production has stabilized. Predictions of sub 8 million barrels a day U.S. production next year will go to the wayside.”
Barclays Capital Inc. analysts including Michael Cohen:

“The agreement is significant, but we believe that what OPEC is now officially saying it will do, it had been planning to do anyway.”

Saudi output was forecast to fall after its peak summer power burn needs and November-December refinery turnarounds will remove some demand.

Iraq’s rejection of secondary-sources oil output estimate is “first sign that cracks are already appearing in deciding which producer cuts and by how much.”