Markets have been delightful over the past week. The speculative fervor has been the best I’ve seen in many years. Even though the rallies in stocks like DRYS and EGLE are ridiculous, it’s a good thing to see people interested in stocks again. The media is attributing this market greatness to proposed Trump policies, the very same policies that the media said would wreak havoc to the economy if enacted.
Pardon my skepticism, but this feels like a trap.
When the history books are written and these fond memories immediately following the Trump win begin to fade, Obama will get the credit for this market run — not Trump. If you look at what’s been occurring, it’s not all good.
The dollar index is at 14 year highs. Those outside of finance think that’s good news. But my readers know this is the fucking pits of hell for any company trying to export, competing with the likes of the Germans (you know the Germans make good stuff), the anime loving Japanese and of course the dog eaters from China. This places all of our companies at a stark disadvantage. This is precisely the sort of currency manipulation that Trump was warning everyone about.
Also, the odds of a Fed rate hike are now in the 90% range, also something to rue. The Fed hiked rates in December of last year and caused a worldwide meltdown and crash in China, led by forex dislocations that kept people up at night. Markets started off the New Year with its worst decline in HISTORY, in the magnitude of -20%.
Trump also warned us about a politicized Fed and even predicted the market would get destroyed once rates started to go back up.
The number one arbitrager of global growth, WTI, has been LOWER since Trump was elected. The Industrial Production numbers that came out today, marked the 14th straight decline — the worst non-recessionary streak in 96 years.
Also, U.S. bond yields have soared since the Trump win. They’re trying to sell this like it’s a good thing, a sign of inflation — but it’s not. It’s a sign of fuckery, largess. Inflation has been absent for a decade. Now, all of a sudden, before Trump has the chance to do anything, inflation is running hot? I don’t think so. The 10yr has gone from 1.75% to 2.23% in a week. The cost to service America’s $20 trillion in debt just skyrocketed, and you’re there applauding it. You do realize that this spike in yields makes financing Trump’s fiscal stimulus plans all the more arduous, yes?
If the globalist scum, who’ve been gutting this country for decades, truly fear Trump and wanted to lay the perfect trap for him, this is exactly how they’d do it. The market is rigged as fuck, so pardon me as I cynically assess everything, as the disingenuous ‘we love Trump’ narrative is peddled by Wall Street now.
My conspiratorial theories will be proven wrong, only if the market is up by February 15th, 2017.
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fucking clippers are now being recognized. and the fucking mavdicks are second to last in the west. fuck you cuban. nba loves balmer cus he is enthusiastic yet does not get fined for being an asshole constantly. america is going to love the clippers. they will become the dallas cowboys of the nba. go america! Dunk Dunk Dunk
http://www.nba.com/article/2016/11/14/power-rankings-week-4-la-clippers?collection=news
I pen a treatise and you reply with off topic Clippers!?
God damned internet.
it relates. it about trump america! and fuck cuban global suck up can fit in anywhere 🙂
besides I have been saying King dollar all year.
Yea, mortgage rates are now in full screw me mode. Great for the wife and me as we house hunt.
Is that you running to lock in rates?
Lol
I agree, excellent seminal post from The Fly.
My view is high house prices are more harmful than higher mortgage rates. The Germans do make good stuff…microphones, automobiles…
Fly have you forgotten? This election is just a distraction from a far more important force on the markets. The Turkey Gods are upon us!
Market is setting up for the fool-proof strategy of “Sell everything”
on Jan. 20 (inauguration day)” if a Republican is being sworn in!
what the fuck are you talking about ” if a Republican is being sworn in ” .
that smells of DNC fuckery talk.
“market”…. fed dec hike special gift for trumpo……………will make 08 look like the warmup it was…..but fed does not believe in biz cycles any longer……..8yrs…
That explains the sudden BS narrative that trump is good for the markets the media has been spinning… These guys r soooooo crooked.
I thought the market was celebrating no more gridlock in Washington.
Excellent post Fly.
Market ran right up to Obama’s inauguration back in ’08 before proceeding to nose dive to a new low in March. A rough comparison to say the least but this market action definitely smells like post-election fuckery and not much else.
of course they’re setting up a crash so they can reel the Trump in and make him play ball according to their rules … they will not go without a fight .. they will give him roughtly the same amount of time to get with the program that they gave JFK, before they JFK/MLK/RFK/Lincoln him
but now the people are on to them .. there will be no respite to the intrigues
I’m hearing (no drumpf) that the transition is going smoothly lolz. Barely one week in and already looks like the sh*t show many of us feared. Fly, you know this run up is insane. Was thinking exactly what you were thinking when I saw rates shoot up the way they did. Markets are nothing more than momentum whores driven mostly by short squeezes. We know when the dust settles, if these guys dont get their act together, it will be a bloodbath. Fly, please no more conspiracy crap. Please say it ain’t so. Is it possible that maybe he just isn’t qualified? Time will tell….
OK, so you’re starting to now espouse the “everyone is setting up Trump to fail” narrative before he even takes office?
This is quite the change from ‘wait until Pepe wins, he’s going to give you all a second asshole’ from November 7th and prior.
My, what a difference a week makes…
Your conspiracy holds up until the inflation fuckery. Inflation cannot be created in a week, it’s an oil tanker that needs miles to make a 90 degree turn.
Inflation has appeared, and yes, there will be speculators that bet on it going to 3%+ (which you and I know is not happening any time soon).
Time to put on the big boy pants and deal with the shithole you so desired, Prez.
There is always market fuckery, it’s just the type that changes.
Cascadia, I’m confused about your point in regards to inflation. Are you saying there is some inflation, but not nearly to the point some speculators are pricing in? If so, where do you see inflation, because I sure have a very difficult time finding it, outside of healthcare costs.
Wages just made a move upward, and the Sept numbers were upward revised as well.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-15/wage-growth-is-galloping-higher-at-its-fastest-pace-in-nearly-eight-years
Honestly, after the Fed hikes in December, I have a hard time seeing another move for quite awhile. Two moves in 2017 is a straight up pipe dream at this point.
December this year is going to be quite a ride…
I’d say the market is setting up retail traders for a failure. Same ol’..same ol’.
There is always an excuse for Trump.
trump says he wants to invest a Trillion in inner cities. You think he may want some yield on that. The ark is on standby. Reaganomics has been promised, the wise money bonds seams be have been convinced.
>My conspiratorial theories will be proven wrong, only if the market is up by February 15th, 2017.
What matters is the market spring 2018.
And the unemployment rates in WI, MI, PA
as long as the yellens sits in the feds the market want crash
i dont even know what’s the meaning of this blog entry
we can have a pull but an oil driven xmas rally is in the cards
after xmas and 2017 ,dontknow
grab your energy tickets?
$lei $hpj
$dakp ( trump interest there )