iBankCoin

CATASTROPHY STRIKES $CVS: SHARES PUNCHED LOWER AFTER HORRIBLE GUIDANCE

You know the retail environment is bad when CVS and WBA are struggling to meet expectations. For more than a decade, these corporate pharmacies have siphoned inordinate amounts of funds from American households — thanks to consolidation and also our addiction to drugs. But something is changing in the landscape and I’m damned sure it’s all Obamacare related.

The scourge that is Obamacare is breaking the backs of blue collared Americans. But more than that, the devils at our pharmaceutical corporations are out of control with their pricing. These morons have priced out their customers. As a result, they’ve made enemies with the media, the people and certain politicians.

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Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.64 per share, $0.07 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.57; revenues rose 15.5% year/year to $44.62 bln vs the $45.29 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
Co issues downside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $1.64-1.70 vs. $1.79 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

Co issues downside guidance for FY16, sees EPS of $5.75-5.83 vs. $5.85 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. The Company raised cash flow guidance for 2016 and now expects to deliver cash flow from operations of $9.3 billion to $9.5 billion and 2016 free cash flow of $6.8 billion to $7.0 billion.

Co issues downside guidance for FY17, sees EPS of $5.77-5.93 vs. $6.53 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

Included in this outlook is the impact from the projected loss of more than 40 million retail prescriptions related to marketplace changes, including new retail pharmacy networks that are excluding CVS Pharmacy drugstores.

Co’s board of directors approved a new share repurchase program for up to $15 billion of the Company’s outstanding common stock. Combined with the approximately $3.7 billion that remains from the 2014 program, the Company has approximately $18.7 billion available for share repurchases.

“We posted a solid third quarter with the PBM exceeding our expectations and retail performing at the lower end of our expectations. However, very recent pharmacy network changes in the marketplace are expected to cause some retail prescriptions to begin migrating out of our pharmacies this quarter. In addition, we are currently experiencing slowing prescription growth in the overall market as well as a soft seasonal business. These factors combined are leading us to reduce the mid-point of our guidance for this year by five cents per share. The network changes have more significant implications for our 2017 outlook. While we expect a healthy increase in PBM operating profit growth in 2017, we expect a decrease in retail operating profit growth.”

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13 comments

  1. jonesy

    So what is the buy it range on either? They both still have their price, right?

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  2. tradingmantis

    Walgreens pharmacist here. CVS = Closing Very Soon.

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    • The Maven

      What are these “Pharmacy Networks”, anyway? I’m self employed so not up to speed on this shit. Oh and I use Walgreen’s,lol.

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      • boyaj

        Retail pharmacy networks are essentially larger pharmacies (think CVS, Walgreens, Rite Aid, etc.) that have a “preferred status” with high participation health plans, which in turn, makes going to one pharmacy cheaper than another. For example, if United Health’s employer health plans in Florida has retail pharmacy agreements with Walgreens, but not CVS, then it’s cheaper for an individual to get a script filled at Walgreens as opposed to CVS. That’s how I’ve come to understand them.

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        • tradingmantis

          Lots of insurances are pretty much the same copay no matter where you go. Where I live the teachers union gets a slightly better price at cvs and a certain large corporation gets a slightly better price at a supermarket. In the end it should come down to service if price isn’t an issue.

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  3. tradingmantis

    The biggest boost I’ve seen in years for Walgreens is that we start taking Tricare, the military’s insurance again on 12/1. Plus, CVS will no longer take them effective on the same date. This affects about 10 million people.

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    • jonesy

      Do you see $WBA taking share from $CVS now, prior to Tricare?

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      • tradingmantis

        I would say yes in all honesty. We haven’t taken Tricare in 5 years due to the Express Scripts fiasco. Very glad to have them back but CVS no longer taking them makes it twice as big.

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        • tradingmantis

          Plus our CEO bought 2 million shares on 11/4 for $162.8 million. Yes….2 million shares.

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        • jonesy

          Thanks, I haven’t owned shares of either in a long time, was leaning $CVS for the lower forward PE. and slightly higher dividend but with Tricare, + CEO buying + what we can see on the ground, $WBA probably best.

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  4. sethster99

    I still have a bad feeling this election isn’t even close to being over. It’s going to be so close that they’re going to start suing. The Supreme Court has only 8 Justices, so there will be a tie there if it ever gets to them. Then what?

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  5. tha pirate

    arrrr. Laddies, are we gonna have to listen to CNBC and Harwood all day long tell us how high Hillary is up in polls etc and that there’s no point in voting for Trump??

    Ignore the Psych-ops of the mainstream media – GET OUT AND VOTE!

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  6. madness

    Good Sir(s),

    What is happening with copper? Up 12 days in a row. Poor Chinese data indicative of a slowing economy. What gives?

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