If you take a step back and view the market pragmatically, you’d see, for all of the hemming and hawing, markets are exactly flat over the past two weeks and down 1.5% over the past month. During that time, we’ve been entreated to the usual litany of Federal Reserve horseshit — warning of imminent rate hikes. With today’s decent NFP report, traders are, once again, bugging the fuck out over the specter of a Fed hike for the December meeting.
Note the chances of such a hike is now 69%.
This is having a deleterious effect on commodities and bonds — with crude sinking more than 1.7%. The dollar is marginally lower v the euro — which makes no sense, whatsoever.
Understand something, you are bearing witness to a grande and inelegant demonstration of ignorance and stupidity on a large scale. We’ve seen this retarded show play out for the last two years. By miracle, as sure as I am sitting here, retail sales will come in so horrid during the holiday season it will alter the way the Fed views the economy. As such, the 69% chance of a Fed cut will be reduced to zero.
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Gold bottom today. Jumping back in.
who’s your contact at the BIS?
This is a tenuous spot, like your conviction though. Look at the yen breaking down, GBP moving lower, AUD looking to be in a downtrend.
You thinking these moves are not related, or that the trend will break?
agreed, tenuous it is. dollar cost average slow and steady, i’m seeing 1150s or lower, but it’s all good nonetheless..
Fed cut, Fed raise, Fed this, Fed that….. it’s “markets”, not markets….. and little old hobgoblin behind the green curtain is but yet another useful idiot up along the central planner food chain serving her cabal….